By Jonathan Lee
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AFC
The Chargers are doing their best to lose the very winnable AFC West despite a significant talent advantage on paper. San Diego lost in embarrassing fashion Monday night to the rival Chiefs who all of a sudden have won 4 games in a row. The Chargers, Chiefs, and Raiders are now all tied for the division lead at 4-3. San Diego was the biggest loser in the league this week dropping a whopping 20.8 percentage points in the projected playoff standings. While the Chargers still project as the favorite in the division, both Kansas City and Oakland made significant gains in this week’s projections. Denver is the only division team out of the race.
A Buffalo win and a New England loss improbably keep the two teams tied atop the AFC East heading into Week 9 at 5-2. The Bills were impressive in shutting out Washington, and they gained 10.1 percentage points in the projections as a result. New England continues to be an overwhelming favorite for the playoffs, but the door remains open for the Bills to win the division. New York actually lost 6.7 percentage points this week despite having a bye because of the gains made by other Wild Card contenders. Miami continues to invent ways to lose ball games.
Pittsburgh beat the Patriots to become the most likely playoff team in the AFC at 93.5 percent. The Steelers also pushed their likelihood of a division title to 67.4 percent. Baltimore struggled to beat Arizona, but the 21-point comeback allowed the Ravens to remain steady in the projections. Cincinnati is actually tied with Baltimore at 5-2 and gained 5 percentage points in the standings. The Bengals are a nice story, but won’t be considered real contenders unless they can beat the Steelers and Ravens head to head later on in the year. The Browns make the playoffs in only 1.7 percent of simulations.
Houston is the only team in the AFC South to have outscored its opposition. The Texans are solid 87.9 percent favorites to win the division as Tennessee is the only real competition remaining. The projection for the Titans remained virtually unchanged after an expected win against foundering Indianapolis. Indy remains winless on the year and is the first team to reach 0.0 percent in playoff probability. Jacksonville is down to just 1.0 percent with a record of 2-6.
| AFC |
WEEK 8 REVIEW |
PLAYOFF |
% CHANCE |
| TEAM |
WK 8 |
WK 9 |
% DIFF |
WIN DIV |
| BUFFALO BILLS |
43.2% |
53.3% |
10.1% |
21.2% |
| KANSAS CITY CHIEFS |
9.2% |
19.0% |
9.8% |
14.7% |
| OAKLAND RAIDERS |
33.4% |
39.0% |
5.6% |
34.2% |
| CINCINNATI BENGALS |
30.9% |
35.8% |
5.0% |
7.0% |
| PITTSBURGH STEELERS |
89.6% |
93.5% |
3.9% |
67.4% |
| HOUSTON TEXANS |
86.2% |
88.8% |
2.6% |
87.9% |
| MIAMI DOLPHINS |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| TENNESSEE TITANS |
16.2% |
16.1% |
-0.1% |
11.3% |
| INDIANAPOLIS COLTS |
0.5% |
0.0% |
-0.5% |
0.0% |
| DENVER BRONCOS |
1.4% |
0.5% |
-0.9% |
0.4% |
| BALTIMORE RAVENS |
73.3% |
72.3% |
-0.9% |
25.4% |
| JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS |
2.4% |
1.0% |
-1.4% |
0.9% |
| CLEVELAND BROWNS |
3.4% |
1.7% |
-1.8% |
0.2% |
| NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS |
95.8% |
91.9% |
-3.9% |
70.4% |
| NEW YORK JETS |
36.2% |
29.5% |
-6.7% |
8.3% |
| SAN DIEGO CHARGERS |
78.4% |
57.6% |
-20.8% |
50.7% |
NFC
Philadelphia’s big win over Dallas Sunday once again shook up the NFC East. The projected winner of the division has changed virtually every week and that is the case once again with New York taking the lead after Week 8. The Giants are 45.9 percent likely to win the division, and they made the biggest gains in the conference as well with regards to playoff probability because of the added value of an automatic bid. The Eagles continue to rebound in the projections after two straight solid wins to match Dallas and Washington at 3-4. Sunday was very damaging to the Cowboys as they lost 16.2 percentage points in the projections, easily the most in the NFC. They are now more likely to miss the playoffs than make it. Washington is in free fall and has only a 2.8 percent chance to win the division.
The shocking loss by the Saints didn’t significantly dampen their playoff chances. New Orleans did drop 8.3 percentage points, but it is still 83.2 percent likely to reach the postseason. What the loss did do is keep Atlanta and Tampa Bay within striking distance for the division crown. The Falcons still have a 25.2 percent chance to the win the NFC South while the Bucs are at 8.4 percent. Both teams are just a half game back in the real standings at 4-3. Cam Newton remains thrilling to watch, but his play hasn’t translated to actual wins for Carolina. The Panthers only make the playoffs in one percent of simulations.
With Green Bay and Chicago off for Week 8, the four teams in the NFC North are actually riding a collective 11 game winning streak. The Packers account for most of that with seven straight wins. They are 99.7 percent likely for a playoff spot. Detroit got a much needed win and gained 10.1 percentage points in probability as a result. The Lions have just a 4.7 percent chance win the North, but are squarely in the Wild Card mix. Chicago is also fighting for a playoff spot, and is 29.3 percent likely to win one at season’s end. Minnesota has shown a lot more fight with rookie Christian Ponder at quarterback, a great sign for next season.
The Niners continue to impress and are virtual locks for the postseason at 99.1 percent. They already have a four-game cushion over Seattle and are basically playing for potential home field going forward. Seattle has only a 0.8 percent chance to catch San Francisco to win the NFC West. St. Louis’ win over New Orleans was enough to stave off a winless season, but did little in real life. Arizona’s collapse against Baltimore was indicative of the type of season the Cardinals are having in 2011.
| NFC |
WEEK 8 REVIEW |
PLAYOFF |
% CHANCE |
| TEAM |
WK 8 |
WK 9 |
% DIFF |
WIN DIV |
| NEW YORK GIANTS |
50.5% |
62.1% |
11.7% |
45.9% |
| PHILADELPHIA EAGLES |
28.5% |
38.6% |
10.1% |
20.3% |
| DETROIT LIONS |
47.8% |
57.9% |
10.1% |
4.7% |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS |
97.0% |
99.1% |
2.1% |
98.9% |
| ATLANTA FALCONS |
48.1% |
50.1% |
2.0% |
25.2% |
| CHICAGO BEARS |
27.9% |
29.3% |
1.5% |
0.8% |
| MINNESOTA VIKINGS |
0.6% |
1.2% |
0.6% |
0.0% |
| GREEN BAY PACKERS |
99.7% |
99.7% |
-0.1% |
94.5% |
| ST. LOUIS RAMS |
0.2% |
0.2% |
-0.1% |
0.1% |
| ARIZONA CARDINALS |
0.8% |
0.4% |
-0.4% |
0.2% |
| CAROLINA PANTHERS |
1.8% |
1.0% |
-0.8% |
0.4% |
| TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS |
24.2% |
22.2% |
-1.9% |
8.4% |
| SEATTLE SEAHAWKS |
6.7% |
3.2% |
-3.6% |
0.8% |
| WASHINGTON REDSKINS |
13.6% |
7.0% |
-6.7% |
2.8% |
| NEW ORLEANS SAINTS |
91.5% |
83.2% |
-8.3% |
66.1% |
| DALLAS COWBOYS |
61.3% |
45.1% |
-16.2% |
31.1% |
