By Jonathan Lee
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AFC
Houston made a massive leap in playoff probability this week gaining 20.7 percentage points. The Texans benefitted in two ways: a blowout win over their closest competition in the Titans, and continued poor performances from both Indianapolis and Jacksonville. Despite being just 4-3, Houston has an 85.2 percent chance of winning the AFC South. Tennessee dropped 21 percentage points in playoff probability, the largest drop in the conference.
Baltimore shockingly lost to Jacksonville Monday night gaining just 146 total yards. Such a poor outing against a bad team in the Jaguars led to the Ravens losing 15.1 percentage points in this week’s projections. A real pattern has already developed this season with Baltimore playing well at home, and extremely poorly on the road. Pittsburgh benefitted greatly from the Ravens misfortune becoming the division favorite again at 60.5 percent. The Bengals continue to play well and made a significant jump of 8.1 percentage points up to 30.9 percent likelihood.
New York continued its revival comeback in a big way against San Diego to win for the second win in a row. The Jets made the second biggest gain in the projections this week gaining 12.1 percentage points. New England is still easily the favorite in the AFC and the East. Buffalo was off on a bye and remained steady at 43.2 percent.
The Chargers were not negatively affected much by the loss in New York. Despite playing very poorly in the second half, they were on the road and not favored outright anyways. Oakland’s quarterbacks on the other hand threw six interceptions and showed that all might not be well without Jason Campbell going forward. The Raiders lost a whopping 17.6 percentage points in playoff probability this week heading into their bye week. Tim Tebow flashed some of his old magic to win in Miami, but the computer still doesn’t believe in the Broncos. Denver is only making the playoffs in 0.8 percent of simulations.
| AFC |
WEEK 7 REVIEW |
PLAYOFF |
% CHANCE |
| TEAM |
WK 7 |
WK 8 |
% DIFF |
WIN DIV |
| HOUSTON TEXANS |
65.5% |
86.2% |
20.7% |
85.2% |
| NEW YORK JETS |
24.2% |
36.2% |
12.1% |
7.5% |
| CINCINNATI BENGALS |
22.7% |
30.9% |
8.1% |
7.1% |
| PITTSBURGH STEELERS |
82.4% |
89.6% |
7.2% |
60.5% |
| KANSAS CITY CHIEFS |
3.4% |
9.2% |
5.7% |
5.6% |
| BUFFALO BILLS |
42.2% |
43.2% |
1.0% |
10.4% |
| JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS |
1.4% |
2.4% |
1.0% |
2.3% |
| DENVER BRONCOS |
0.6% |
1.4% |
0.8% |
0.7% |
| CLEVELAND BROWNS |
2.7% |
3.4% |
0.8% |
0.8% |
| NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS |
95.1% |
95.8% |
0.7% |
82.1% |
| MIAMI DOLPHINS |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| INDIANAPOLIS COLTS |
1.2% |
0.5% |
-0.6% |
0.5% |
| SAN DIEGO CHARGERS |
82.1% |
78.4% |
-3.7% |
71.5% |
| BALTIMORE RAVENS |
88.3% |
73.3% |
-15.1% |
31.7% |
| OAKLAND RAIDERS |
51.1% |
33.4% |
-17.6% |
22.2% |
| TENNESSEE TITANS |
37.3% |
16.2% |
-21.0% |
12.0% |
NFC
The musical chair act atop the NFC East continues this week with the Cowboys jumping 16.9 percentage points, most in the conference. Dallas is 48.4 percent likely to win the division. Most of that comes at the expense of Washington and New York who lost a combined 12.6 percentage points. The Giants however are still more likely to reach the playoffs than not at 50.5 percent. Philadelphia made a small gain during a bye week and has a 15.3 percent chance of winning the division.
Green Bay is still the best bet in the NFL to make the playoffs at 99.7 percent. Detroit lost for the second week in a row, and has really fallen back to Earth. The Lions lost a whopping 22.5 percentage points this week, and now are less than a 50-50 bet to make the postseason. The Bears made a slight uptick of 6.1 percentage points.
The Saints put up 62 points this week, albeit against Indianapolis, but still showed their offense is one of the best in the league. They gained 6.9 percentage points, and are 91.5 percent likely to make the playoffs. Only three teams are more likely to make the postseason. Tampa Bay has little margin for error week to week, and losing Earnest Graham for the season doesn’t help. The Bucs are about 10 percent less likely to reach the postseason than they were last week. Atlanta meanwhile won its second in a row, and jumped up significantly – 16.6 percentage points to be exact.
San Francisco is actually more likely to make the playoffs than both New Orleans and New England. The 49ers play in the weak NFC West, and are so far ahead of their competition that they are winning the division 96.2 percent of the time. Arizona and St. Louis combine to make the postseason in only one percent of simulations while Seattle does just 6.7 percent of the time.
| NFC |
WEEK 7 REVIEW |
PLAYOFF |
% CHANCE |
| TEAM |
WK 7 |
WK 8 |
% DIFF |
WIN DIV |
| DALLAS COWBOYS |
44.3% |
61.3% |
16.9% |
48.4% |
| ATLANTA FALCONS |
31.5% |
48.1% |
16.6% |
17.1% |
| NEW ORLEANS SAINTS |
84.6% |
91.5% |
6.9% |
75.7% |
| CHICAGO BEARS |
21.8% |
27.9% |
6.1% |
0.8% |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS |
93.9% |
97.0% |
3.1% |
96.2% |
| PHILADELPHIA EAGLES |
26.8% |
28.5% |
1.7% |
15.3% |
| GREEN BAY PACKERS |
99.3% |
99.7% |
0.4% |
95.7% |
| CAROLINA PANTHERS |
1.7% |
1.8% |
0.0% |
0.4% |
| ST. LOUIS RAMS |
0.6% |
0.2% |
-0.3% |
0.2% |
| MINNESOTA VIKINGS |
1.3% |
0.6% |
-0.7% |
0.0% |
| ARIZONA CARDINALS |
2.1% |
0.8% |
-1.3% |
0.6% |
| SEATTLE SEAHAWKS |
11.2% |
6.7% |
-4.5% |
3.0% |
| NEW YORK GIANTS |
55.3% |
50.5% |
-4.8% |
31.4% |
| WASHINGTON REDSKINS |
21.4% |
13.6% |
-7.8% |
4.9% |
| TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS |
34.0% |
24.2% |
-9.8% |
6.8% |
| DETROIT LIONS |
70.3% |
47.8% |
-22.5% |
3.5% |
