By Jonathan Lee

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AFC

Rookie T.J. Yates led Houston to history Sunday with a dramatic comeback victory over San Francisco.  The win clinched the AFC South and the first playoff spot in history for the Texans.  Right now, the team also holds tiebreakers over New England and Baltimore for the top seed in the AFC.  The Patriots should be the next team to clinch their division as they are 99.8 percent likely to do so according to simulations.  Baltimore and Pittsburgh are still battling for the AFC North crown and seeding with the Ravens currently leading at 58.2 percent probability.

Tim Tebow and the Broncos made the biggest jump this week after finally taking over the lead in the AFC West outright.  Denver gained 21.7 percentage points in playoff probability, and is 62.3 percent likely to win the division. On the flip side, Oakland dropped 15.7 percentage points to be just 34.1 percent likely to reach the playoffs.  San Diego kept its slim hopes of salvaging the season alive with another win, but still lost ground because of the Denver win.  The Chargers make the playoffs in fewer than 1 in 10 simulations.

With Baltimore and Pittsburgh both 10-3, there is only 1 remaining playoff spot available in the AFC.  The Jets have won three straight games and are currently the most likely team to win the final Wild Card spot.  New York gained over 20 percentage points in playoff probability from last week, and is 46.1 percent likely to make the postseason.  Despite a run of poor form, Oakland is still next in line at 34.1 percent.  Tennessee couldn’t pull off the upset against New Orleans and is 24.4 percent probability. The biggest loser this week was Cincinnati.  The shocking last second loss to Houston eliminated the Bengals from a shot (albeit long) at the AFC North, and pushed them to back of the line for the Wild Card.  They are currently 7-6 and make the playoffs in just 15.3 percent of simulations.

AFC	WEEK 14 REVIEW		PLAYOFF	% CHANCE
TEAM	WK 14	WK 15	% DIFF	WIN DIV
DENVER BRONCOS	48.3%	70.0%	21.7%	62.3%
NEW YORK JETS	25.5%	46.1%	20.7%	0.2%
HOUSTON TEXANS	93.3%	100.0%	6.7%	100.0%
BALTIMORE RAVENS	98.2%	99.5%	1.3%	58.2%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS	99.8%	99.9%	0.2%	99.8%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS	99.8%	99.9%	0.2%	41.8%
CLEVELAND BROWNS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
MIAMI DOLPHINS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
BUFFALO BILLS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS	11.2%	9.6%	-1.6%	8.4%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS	2.7%	0.3%	-2.4%	0.3%
TENNESSEE TITANS	31.7%	24.4%	-7.3%	0.0%
OAKLAND RAIDERS	49.9%	34.1%	-15.7%	29.0%
CINCINNATI BENGALS	39.8%	15.3%	-24.5%	0.0%

NFC

Eli Manning and a crazy string of events that seemingly only happen to the Cowboys combined Sunday night to make New York the division leader in the NFC East.  The Giants are 57 percent likely to win the division which is key because both New York and Dallas trail both Atlanta and Detroit by a game for the Wild Cards.  The Cowboys are 40.8 percent likely to win the East.

Green Bay and San Francisco have clinched their divisions while New Orleans has clinched a playoff spot.  The Packers are basically assured of the top seed leading both the Niners and Saints by three games with three to play.  The real battle will be for the second seed, and the first round playoff bye.

Atlanta is the overwhelming favorite for the first Wild Card spot.  The Falcons make the playoffs 88 percent of the time, and still have a small 8.5 percent chance to win the NFC South.  Detroit is 58.6 percent likely to win the other Wild Card, an improvement of over 10 percent from last week.  Dallas is 48 percent likely to reach the postseason, but winning the East is the much easier route having to only pass the Giants rather than multiple other teams.  Arizona and Seattle both won to keep things interesting at 6-7.  Neither team is likely to run the table however with Seattle the more likely of the two to pull off a miracle.  The back and forth between the Giants and Cowboys kept Philadelphia alive for another week despite a 5-8 record.

NFC	WEEK 14 REVIEW		PLAYOFF	% CHANCE
TEAM	WK 14	WK 15	% DIFF	WIN DIV
NEW YORK GIANTS	41.0%	63.9%	23.0%	57.0%
ATLANTA FALCONS	68.8%	88.0%	19.2%	8.5%
DETROIT LIONS	48.4%	58.6%	10.3%	0.0%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES	1.1%	2.5%	1.4%	2.2%
ARIZONA CARDINALS	4.8%	5.3%	0.6%	0.0%
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS	8.6%	8.9%	0.4%	0.0%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS	99.9%	100.0%	0.1%	91.5%
GREEN BAY PACKERS	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%
ST. LOUIS RAMS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CAROLINA PANTHERS	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	0.0%
WASHINGTON REDSKINS	0.2%	0.0%	-0.2%	0.0%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS	0.6%	0.0%	-0.6%	0.0%
CHICAGO BEARS	46.9%	24.8%	-22.2%	0.0%
DALLAS COWBOYS	79.7%	48.0%	-31.7%	40.8%