By Jonathan Lee

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AFC

Tim Tebow did it again.  After more late game drama – this time in Minnesota – Tebow led his team to a win.  Denver has now won 6 of its last 7 games, and took over first place on the strength of a tiebreaker against Oakland.  The Raiders are still the slight favorites according to the computers, winning the AFC West 45.9 percent of the time.  The Broncos win the division 41.6 percent of the time.  A week ago the Raiders were nearly 80 percent likely to reach the playoffs.  Now they are just a 50-50.  Denver basically has the same odds as Oakland to reach the postseason, gaining nearly 19 percentage points over last week.  San Diego kept its slim hopes alive for a late run at the division title with its first win in eight weeks.

Aside from the AFC West, the other divisions look to be all but over.  New England is the leader in the East, Houston in the South, and either Baltimore or Pittsburgh in the North.  Whichever team doesn’t win the North will take one Wild Card spot.  That leaves one spot open in the postseason with four 7-5 teams vying for it.

Both West teams are in contention for the final Wild Card depending on which ultimately wins the division.  The other squads involved are the Bengals, Titans, and Jets.  After Week 13, AccuScore simulations favor both AFC West teams to make the postseason.  Cincinnati is next at just under 40 percent probability, but that is 17.7 percentage points worse than a week ago.  Tennessee gained 8.6 percentage points after a solid win over the Bills.  The Titans are 31.7 percent likely for the playoffs.  New York is really in a bind because it does not currently hold tiebreakers against its direct competition for the final playoff spot.

AFC	WEEK 13 REVIEW		PLAYOFF	% CHANCE
TEAM	WK 13	WK 14	% DIFF	WIN DIV
DENVER BRONCOS	29.7%	48.3%	18.6%	41.6%
TENNESSEE TITANS	23.1%	31.7%	8.6%	10.6%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS	4.6%	11.2%	6.6%	10.0%
NEW YORK JETS	21.6%	25.5%	3.9%	0.4%
HOUSTON TEXANS	89.6%	93.3%	3.7%	89.4%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS	96.9%	99.8%	2.9%	46.3%
BALTIMORE RAVENS	96.3%	98.2%	1.9%	53.6%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS	0.9%	2.7%	1.8%	2.5%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS	99.6%	99.8%	0.2%	99.6%
MIAMI DOLPHINS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CLEVELAND BROWNS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
BUFFALO BILLS	1.5%	0.0%	-1.4%	0.0%
CINCINNATI BENGALS	57.5%	39.8%	-17.7%	0.1%
OAKLAND RAIDERS	78.9%	49.9%	-29.1%	45.9%

NFC

The biggest gainer in the NFC is Detroit despite a fifth loss in seven weeks on Sunday.  The Lions lost to New Orleans, but gained ground in the projected playoff race due to the losses by the Giants, Falcons, and Bears. They are now 48.4 percent likely for a playoff spot, up 8.6 percentage points from last week. Chicago is the biggest loser this week, falling 12.2 percentage points this week, and the Bears are down to 46.9 percent likely for a playoff spot and falling.  The injuries to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte have really dampened the outlook for the Bears, and have in turn boosted the Lions. 

New York lost on Sunday and trails the other three teams in Wild Card contention (Chicago, Atlanta, Detroit) by a game, but the Giants still gained 7.8 percentage points this week.  That is because NFC East leader, Dallas, also lost, keeping the Giants just a game back for the division.  The Cowboys are still 72 percent likely to win the East, but a win in Arizona could have basically salted away a postseason berth.  Now the Giants still win the division in 27.4 percent of simulations.  Miraculously, a loss on Thursday night still didn’t knock Philadelphia completely out of the playoffs.  The Eagles are not mathematically eliminated, but make the playoffs in just 1.1 percent of simulations.

Seattle and Arizona both got their fifth wins of the year and stayed alive for a Wild Card spot.  Both would likely need to win out, but both made significant leaps this week.  Seattle makes the playoff in 8.6 percent of simulations while Arizona does so 4.8 percent of the time.  Atlanta is still a favorite for a Wild Card spot, but missed out on a golden opportunity to distance themselves after losing to a T.J. Yates led Houston team.  The Falcons still make the playoffs nearly 70 percent of the time, but that is down nearly 8 percentage points compared to last week.

NFC	WEEK 13 REVIEW		PLAYOFF	% CHANCE
TEAM	WK 13	WK 14	% DIFF	WIN DIV
DETROIT LIONS	39.7%	48.4%	8.6%	0.0%
NEW YORK GIANTS	33.2%	41.0%	7.8%	27.4%
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS	1.7%	8.6%	6.9%	0.0%
ARIZONA CARDINALS	0.7%	4.8%	4.1%	0.0%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS	98.1%	99.9%	1.9%	92.4%
CAROLINA PANTHERS	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%
GREEN BAY PACKERS	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
ST. LOUIS RAMS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
WASHINGTON REDSKINS	0.9%	0.2%	-0.7%	0.0%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS	1.4%	0.6%	-0.8%	0.0%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES	4.2%	1.1%	-3.2%	0.6%
DALLAS COWBOYS	84.3%	79.7%	-4.6%	72.0%
ATLANTA FALCONS	76.7%	68.8%	-7.9%	7.6%
CHICAGO BEARS	59.2%	46.9%	-12.2%	0.0%