By Jonathan Lee
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AFC
The Bengals are somehow 4-2 and have won 3 games in a row. Still, Cincinnati is not quite a contender making the playoffs in 25.7 percent of simulations but it€™s getting close. That number represents a 10.3 percentage point gain from a week ago. The problem is the in-division competition in the AFC North. Baltimore is the favorite for the division at 53.7 percent with Pittsburgh trailing at 40.5 percent. Both teams are well over 80 percent odds to make the postseason. Cleveland is the one North team already out of the picture.
Oakland suffered the biggest drop in the conference despite winning because of the injury to Jason Campbell. The Raiders dropped 12.7 percentage points, but the recent acquisition of veteran Carson Palmer could reverse those fortunes. The Chargers benefitted from the injury despite being off on a bye week gaining 5.7 percentage points to add to their projected AFC West lead. Kansas City and Denver also benefitted slightly but the two teams combine to win the division just 2.2 percent of simulations.
The Jets got a big win on Monday night to reach .500 at 3-3. That moved New York up 4.9 percentage points which would have been more had it been over a better team than Miami. The Dolphins are now the first team to reach 0.0 percent in playoff odds, and they are well on their way to winning the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Buffalo suffered a heartbreaker to New York this week, one that could be critical in the standings. The Bills fell to 44.5 percent playoff odds and would slot in the final Wild Card spot in the AFC for now. New England continues to roll as the most likely playoff participant in the AFC.
Houston didn€™t look great without Andre Johnson and Mario Williams in a loss to the Ravens. To be fair, Baltimore€™s defense shuts down most teams, but Johnson€™s injury has to be a bit of a concern given how much Matt Schaub relies on him in the passing game. The Texans are still the favorite in the AFC South for now at nearly 63 percent for the division. Tennessee is next at 34.7 percent, and made only minimal gains because of a bye. Jacksonville and Indianapolis are a combined 1-11 and win the division a combined 2.5 percent of the time.
| AFC |
WEEK 6 REVIEW |
PLAYOFF |
% CHANCE |
| TEAM |
WK 6 |
WK 7 |
% DIFF |
WIN DIV |
| CINCINNATI BENGALS |
15.4% |
25.7% |
10.3% |
5.3% |
| SAN DIEGO CHARGERS |
83.6% |
89.3% |
5.7% |
82.4% |
| NEW YORK JETS |
21.5% |
26.4% |
4.9% |
5.1% |
| TENNESSEE TITANS |
35.2% |
38.9% |
3.7% |
34.7% |
| BALTIMORE RAVENS |
85.8% |
89.0% |
3.2% |
53.7% |
| NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS |
94.1% |
95.9% |
1.8% |
83.1% |
| KANSAS CITY CHIEFS |
3.0% |
4.7% |
1.6% |
1.9% |
| DENVER BRONCOS |
0.8% |
1.0% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
| MIAMI DOLPHINS |
0.2% |
0.0% |
-0.1% |
0.0% |
| JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS |
1.7% |
1.5% |
-0.2% |
1.5% |
| INDIANAPOLIS COLTS |
1.4% |
1.1% |
-0.4% |
1.0% |
| CLEVELAND BROWNS |
5.2% |
2.7% |
-2.5% |
0.4% |
| PITTSBURGH STEELERS |
86.6% |
83.9% |
-2.6% |
40.5% |
| HOUSTON TEXANS |
68.9% |
64.7% |
-4.2% |
62.8% |
| BUFFALO BILLS |
53.2% |
44.5% |
-8.6% |
11.9% |
| OAKLAND RAIDERS |
43.4% |
30.8% |
-12.7% |
15.4% |
NFC
There was another change atop the NFC East with the Giants displacing the Cowboys as the division favorite. New York pulled out a late win in Buffalo, and gained 11.5 percentage points in the playoff standings. The Giants now have a 41.6 percent chance to win the division. Dallas lost a late lead yet again, and made the biggest drop in the conference losing 10.5 percentage points. The Eagles finally got a much needed win over Washington to re-establish themselves as a possible playoff contender. They gained 6.5 percentage points while the Redskins dropped 7.5 percentage points.
Tampa Bay made a big statement beating division rival New Orleans at home. The Bucs gained 8.6 percentage points by winning a game it wasn€™t projected to win. The loss dropped the Saints 6.9 percentage points, but they are still the big favorite in the NFC South winning the division nearly 71 percent of the time. Atlanta beat bottom-feeding Carolina, but it still fell slightly behind Tampa Bay in playoff probability at 30.7 percent overall. The Panthers are almost done in the division already at just 0.5 percent odds for the South title.
San Francisco was the overwhelming preseason expert pick by AccuScore for the NFC West title, and the Niners have proven that prediction to be a great choice. Jim Harbaugh has led his team to a 5-1 start which already translates to a 92.7 percent chance for a division title. The Niners have the second best odds at a playoff spot in the NFC at 94.4 percent behind the Packers, but are the most likely division winner. Seattle is the only other competitor that can even see the playoffs, and the Seahawks project to make it just 11.2 percent of the time. Arizona and St. Louis are virtually done making the playoffs a combined 2.3 percent of simulations.
Green Bay is the only remaining undefeated team at 6-0, and it is the likeliest playoff team in the NFL at 99.5 percent. The Packers win the North 90.7 percent of the time, and are pulling away from Detroit despite the Lions starting 5-1. The Lions did suffer their first loss, but it was to a quality team in San Francisco. They are still the most likely NFC team to win a Wild Card berth at 72.1 percent odds to make the postseason. Chicago rescued its fading hopes with a big win on Sunday night making the second biggest jump of the week gaining 8.7 percentage points. Minnesota remains in good shape for a top draft pick.
| NFC |
WEEK 6 REVIEW |
PLAYOFF |
% CHANCE |
| TEAM |
WK 6 |
WK 7 |
% DIFF |
WIN DIV |
| NEW YORK GIANTS |
43.5% |
55.0% |
11.5% |
41.6% |
| CHICAGO BEARS |
13.4% |
22.1% |
8.7% |
0.6% |
| TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS |
24.6% |
33.2% |
8.6% |
14.0% |
| PHILADELPHIA EAGLES |
20.9% |
27.4% |
6.5% |
16.0% |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS |
90.3% |
94.4% |
4.0% |
92.7% |
| ATLANTA FALCONS |
27.3% |
30.7% |
3.4% |
14.7% |
| GREEN BAY PACKERS |
99.2% |
99.5% |
0.3% |
90.7% |
| ST. LOUIS RAMS |
1.5% |
0.7% |
-0.8% |
0.6% |
| ARIZONA CARDINALS |
2.5% |
1.6% |
-0.9% |
1.2% |
| CAROLINA PANTHERS |
3.3% |
1.4% |
-1.9% |
0.5% |
| SEATTLE SEAHAWKS |
13.7% |
11.2% |
-2.5% |
5.6% |
| MINNESOTA VIKINGS |
5.4% |
1.3% |
-4.1% |
0.0% |
| NEW ORLEANS SAINTS |
92.5% |
85.5% |
-6.9% |
70.9% |
| WASHINGTON REDSKINS |
27.9% |
20.4% |
-7.5% |
10.2% |
| DETROIT LIONS |
80.0% |
72.1% |
-7.9% |
8.7% |
| DALLAS COWBOYS |
54.2% |
43.6% |
-10.5% |
32.3% |
