Written by Rohit Ghosh
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It's still fairly early in the season, but it's safe to call this week's matchup against the Buffalo Bills a must win for the Seattle Seahawks after going 1-1-1 in their past three contests.
Even then, some would argue the win over Atlanta was questionable with the officials deciding to not throw a flag for pass interference at the end of the game.
With that said, they still have the top record (4-2-1) in the NFC West and a matchup against a banged-up Bills roster is exactly what they need.
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Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Sims
Seattle heads into Week 9's MNF matchup as heavy home favorites, listed at -300 on the money line, with the visiting Buffalo Bills getting +250 odds.
AccuScore sim data actually has the Seahawks as heavier favorites than do Vegas odds (-7), favoring the home side by double-digit margin (-11).
Seattle is 6-1 straight up (SU) in its last 7 games at home, but just 3-6 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine games overall.
The value pick in this matchup is on the total, with AccuScore data listing it at 47 - three points higher than the 44 listed in Vegas.
The total combined score goes OVER 44 in about 57 percent of simulated matchups, a three-star (out of four) hot trend.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of the Bills' last 7 games overall, and in 4 of the Seahawks' last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo.
AccuScore has expert picks for every game all NFL season long, as well as NBA, NHL, Premier League, NCAA Football, NCAA basketball and more sports…second-best unit
What to Watch For
First and foremost - this matchup with injured rosters weighs the home field variable heavily. Seattle's at home and they don't really mess around up there. Since Russell Wilson joined the team in 202, they've lost just five games in 35.
How successful Buffalo is Monday Night depends greatly on their ground attack. In four wins this season, the Bills are averaging 212 rushing yards per game; in their four losses, that number hovers just above 96 yards per game.
All signs point to RB LeSean McCoy starting, but being able to play and having a big night are two different stories. He averages about 84 rushing yards per simulated contest to go along with 0.4 TDS per.
Even if McCoy is firing on all cylinders, let's not forget the Seahawks are really good against the run. They're ranked as the second-best unit against the run, according to Football Outsiders.
