Written by Rohit Ghosh

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AccuScore’s computer has picks against the spread and on totals for tonight’s Monday Night Football game. See them on the NFL Expert Picks page. If you’re not a member, AccuScore membership comes with a FREE 7 Day Trail so Join Now.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs come into Monday’s matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers as double-digit underdogs, and it will most likely take a miracle just to keep this game close. The Steelers (5-3) enter the week after a huge win against the New York Giants, where they extended their winning streak to three games. The Chiefs (1-7), on the other hand, are on a five-game losing streak and continue to look like one of the worst teams in the league. The Chiefs are on the road and all the data points to a fairly easy Pittsburgh victory.

AccuScore simulations project the Steelers to win nearly 85 percent of the time, with an average score of 29-14. They cover the spread (-11.5) almost 59 percent of the time, and get a big win (10+ points) almost 66 percent of simulations.

Pittsburgh’s defense ranks first in passing yards allowed per game (174.0), and seventh in rushing yards allowed per game (88.6). Regardless of how the Chiefs attack the Steelers, they will have a tough time getting the ball downfield. The Chiefs have the 25th-ranked passing offense (207.6 yards per game) and Chiefs' quarterbacks (Matt Cassel, Brady Quinn) have thrown only six touchdowns compared to 14 interceptions. Cassel, who has fumbled the ball eight times (losing seven of the eight) and thrown 11 interceptions, will get the start this week. AccuScore simulations project 190 yards with a QB rating of 65.4 for Cassel, and a higher chance of throwing an INT than a TD. The Steelers’ defensive front will load the box to contain the running game forcing the ball in the hands of Cassel. If they could hold quarterback Eli Manning to just 125 yards last week, I can’t wait to see how well they defend Cassel.

His best target all year has been wide receiver Dwayne Bowe, who is projected to catch the ball five times for 69 yards. The Steelers defensive backfield has to be patient and stay disciplined to prevent any unnecessary penalties that would help the Chiefs trot downfield.

The only chance the Chiefs have in this game is if running back Jamaal Charles carries the ball as much as possible, and is effective doing so. Although Charles was on the injury report with a neck issue, he is expected to start on Monday. By no means is this a favorable match-up for Charles, but he is a better option than letting Cassel throw the ball for the majority of snaps. In the last two games, Charles has totaled just 43 rushing yards. AccuScore simulations project him for just 36 yards on 11 carries. Maybe Kansas City should just let Charles return the opening kick a la 2009 .

Kansas City allows 221.5 yards per game through the air (11th in the NFL), and 126.0 rushing yards per game (23rd in the NFL). The entire team’s horrendous play thus far is more a reflection of their defensive unit than anything else. While turning the ball over 29 times already is embarrassing, the situation gets worse when the defense allows 30 points a game. The Steelers have only the 14th-ranked offense, but the only issue I foresee for them is with the offensive line. Kansas City linebackers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, who combined have 11 sacks on the season, will put constant pressure on quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh line has to stand strong no matter how good Roethlisberger is at avoiding sacks. We know the Chiefs will try to bring pressure a number of times on Monday, but how many sacks they record might be the deciding factor to the game. AccuScore simulations project 268 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a QB rating of 100.3 for Roethlisberger.

The Steelers have still have two games against the Ravens coming up, and as a result, I expect them to focus more on the passing game to give their backs some needed rest. Running backs Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman are projected to rush for 58 and 53 yards respectively. As of Saturday afternoon, Dwyer is listed as probable.

No matter which way you look at it, this game looks like a walk in the park for Pittsburgh. The Steelers face divisional opponents in the following three games and will look to build as much momentum as possible Monday night. I’m taking the Steelers, 24-10.