Written by Rohit Ghosh

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AccuScore’s computer has picks against the spread and on totals for tonight’s 49ers vs Cardinals game. See them on the NFL Expert Picks page.

NFC West: San Francisco vs Arizona

Tonight’s Monday Night action has the San Francisco 49ers going down to Arizona to face the Cardinals in a NFC West showdown. This game is a must-win for Arizona if they plan to have any shot at the division title.

I tend to give a slight nudge to the team that needs the win more, but the San Francisco defense is just too dominant to let Arizona quarterback John Skelton beat them. AccuScore’s simulations project a 49er win over 70 percent of the time, with an average score of 22-15. The simulations also show the 49ers covering the spread (-7) 49 percent of the time.

Arizona comes into the week losing three games in a row after starting the season 4-0. The key for them this game is to make sure their passing game is on point. Last week, Minnesota was able to take away Skelton’s deep threats, making it tough to march down the field. In fact, Skelton had no 20-plus yard attempts. The Niners will follow the same strategy primarily to nullify WR Larry Fitzgerald’s production.

Skelton actually faced the Niners in Week 14 last season, and threw for 282 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. Minnesota was able to hold Arizona to just 230 passing yards last week. The 49ers are among the best in the league in rushing yards allowed (98.9 yds/game), and will force Arizona to be more dependent on the passing game. The stats that stand out are Arizona 31st in the league in total offense and San Francisco first in total defense. The 49ers offense, which is ninth in total offense, will face a unit ranked seventh in the league. The SF offense won’t have an easy night, but the Arizona offense is going to have a nightmare.

AccuScore simulations project 220 yards for Skelton with a QB rating of 62.8. The same simulations show him throwing at least one interception as well. Running back LaRod Stephens-Howling, who ran for 104 yards and a touchdown last week, is projected to only rush for 36 yards. Fitzgerald is projected to total approximately 70 yards.

San Francisco comes into the week leading the league in rushing yards per carry (5.9), while the Arizona defense has been giving up 4.2 ypc thus far (20th in league). In last week’s matchup against the Seahawks, running back Frank Gore carried much of the load running for 131 yards on 16 carries, and catching the ball five times for an additional 51 yards. AccuScore’s simulations project 76 yards for Gore.

If, for whatever reason, Gore has a sub-par game, quarterback Alex Smith needs to stay patient and not turn the ball over. Given that the Niner offense relies on its backs, AccuScore’s simulations project 194 yards and a 79.2 QB rating for Smith.

The Cardinals have allowed 29 sacks in the past four games, which is more than some teams allowed in the entire 2011 regular season. Arizona is without backs Beanie Wells or Ryan Williams, and will most likely struggle on the ground. One the other side of the ball, the Cardinals are currently third in the NFL with 22 sacks with linebacker Daryl Washington leading the team with 6.0. The SF offense will see pressure from all sides, but should be productive if they stay on the same page.

This is going to be a physical game, given the hatred the Cardinals have for the 49ers, and San Francisco needs to get the ball to tight end Vernon Davis from the outset. Davis has had a nice start to the season, but has been surprisingly nonexistent in the last few games. When Davis faced Arizona last year, he had six catches for 99 yards and a score. AccuScore’s simulations project 46 yards for Davis.

NFL teams know that if they can stop San Francisco’s running game early on, they can control that offense. Look for the Niners to focus on the running game, and mix in the pass accordingly. My prediction- San Francisco gets the win, 21-10, and separates themselves further in the NFC West.