By Jonathan Lee

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NFC

Detroit is one of only of only two 5-0 teams remaining. The Lions won for the first time on Monday Night in over a decade and continue to be one of the biggest stories in football. They made the biggest improvement in the projected playoff standings this week gaining 16.5 percentage points. The Lions are the third most likely NFC playoff team at 80 percent, and that number would be even higher if they were not in the same division as the other 5-0 team, the Packers. Green Bay was clinical in taking apart Atlanta on the road and is already a virtual lock for the postseason. The Packers make the playoffs in 99.2 percent of simulations which is the highest rate of any team in the NFL. Chicago has already lost to both Detroit and Green Bay head to head, and the Bears are teetering on irrelevance just five weeks into the season. The Bears fell 5.7 percentage points this week and have just a 0.3 percent chance of winning the NFC North. Minnesota finally got a win on the board, but that did little to improve its playoff outlook. The Vikings project to make the playoffs just 5.4 percent of the time.

The other big surprise in the NFC has to be the 4-1 Niners. They blew out Tampa Bay by 45 points at home but only gained 2.6 percentage points in the playoff standings. That is because AccuScore already had faith in San Francisco as the best team in the NFC West, and it is making the playoffs in over 90 percent of simulations after 5 games. Seattle sprung an upset on New York to stay alive in the playoff race, making the postseason 13.7 percent of the time. Meanwhile, St. Louis and Arizona reach the postseason in only four percent of simulations.

The NFC East remains the most jumbled division in football. Dallas took over the projected lead by not even playing a game. The Cowboys are winning the division 42.1 percent of the time. Washington was also off this week and still gained four percentage points in AccuScore projections. Both teams made gains because their competition laid eggs in Week 5. The Giants just didn't show up against Seattle and, as a result, lost by double digits to a bad team. New York dropped 14 percentage points this week, nearly twice as much as any other team in the NFL this week. Philadelphia fell to 1-4 and has become a nightmare team. The Eagles dropped 5.6 percentage points in the standings.

New Orleans is sitting pretty in the NFC South. The Saints are making the playoffs in 92.5 percentage points in playoff probability. Their closest competitor continues to be Tampa Bay, but the Bucs only have a 1 in 4 chance at the playoffs. That is only slightly lower than Atlanta's chances. The Falcons were expected to be real contenders this year, but they already have three losses and only win the division 9.3 percent of the time. Carolina remains entertaining but likely won't be doing anything of significance this year with regards to the postseason.

AFC

The Bills continue to circle the wagons. Buffalo beat the so-called "dream team" to continue its own dream season moving to 4-1. The Bills gained over 10 percentage points in the AccuScore projections and now, make the playoffs more often than not: 53.2 percent of the time. They remain tied with New England in the real standings. However, the Patriots are the most likely playoff team in the AFC at 94.1 percent. The AFC East team that should start to worry is New York. The Jets had another significant drop in our projections, losing 7.3 percentage points this week. Miami, though, is in good shape for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

Oakland won one for Al Davis and continues to be a viable contender in the AFC West. The Raiders win the division in 25.9 percent of simulations. The Chargers remain the favorite in the division. At 83.6 percent, the Chargers are a likely playoff team. Kansas City actually won its second game this week, but the computers don't believe in the Chiefs, as their playoff odds remain at just three percent. The wins are really just worsening their draft positioning. Denver got a crowd boost by playing Tim Tebow, but the playoffs are a fantasy for this season.

The AFC North is the only division with three teams with three wins, and four teams with two wins. Pittsburgh gained a bit of ground on Baltimore by getting a big win over Tennessee. The Ravens, however, were off on their bye week. Still, the Steelers are the second choice in the North by a slim margin, winning the division 46 percent of the time. The Ravens win the division 49.5 percent of the time. The Bengals surprisingly have three wins, but they are long shots at the postseason at 15.4 percent. At the bottom, Cleveland is just 5.2 percent likely to make the playoffs.

Houston fell 5.7 percentage points after an odd loss to the Raiders at home. Luckily for the Texans, the AFC South is a weak division and they remain the favorites. They win the division 66.4 percent of the time. Tennessee is about half as likely for the playoffs winning the division 30.6 percent of the time. Jacksonville and Indianapolis are already just playing out the string at a combined 1-9, with just a 3.1 percent combined probability for the playoffs.