By Jonathan Lee
The two teams most likely to win the Super Bowl according to the betting odds are New England and San Francisco. Both teams will be playing at home this weekend, and host Baltimore and New York respectively. The Patriots and Niners are projected to win according to AccuScore simulations, but that does not translate directly into betting value.
The chart below shows the betting odds for each of the four remaining teams to win the Super Bowl (yes/no), their translated Vegas odds into winning percentage, their AccuScore winning percentage, and the difference between the two (+/- or value).
| SUPER BOWL |
YES |
NO |
ODDS |
ACC |
+/- |
| New England |
115 |
-129 |
45.5% |
47.4% |
1.9% |
| San Francisco |
329 |
-390 |
22.8% |
18.8% |
-4.0% |
| New York |
349 |
-417 |
21.8% |
19.0% |
-2.8% |
| Baltimore |
613 |
-800 |
13.7% |
14.8% |
1.1% |
Right now the AFC teams have more value than the NFC teams. The Pats are actually the best value considering the odds. They win the Super Bowl 47.4 percent of the time in simulations while the betting line translates into a 45.5 percent rate. Baltimore also wins slightly more often in simulations (14.8 percent) than its translated betting line (13.7 percent).
The NFC teams, San Francisco and New York, both win less often in simulations than do they are projected to according to the betting lines. The Niners are the worst value bet of the four remaining teams winning the Super Bowl 4.0 percent less often than their translated odds. The Giants are slight underdogs this weekend to San Francisco (48 percent), but they actually win the Super Bowl at a higher rate (19 percent compared to 18.8 percent).
