By Jonathan Lee
The chart below shows the odds for each playoff team to win the Super Bowl (Yes/No), the translated Vegas odds (ODDS), their simulated odds (ACC), and the difference between the two numbers (+/-). The teams are ranked by their AccuScore projected odds to win the Super Bowl.
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| SUPER BOWL |
YES |
NO |
ODDS |
ACC |
+/- |
| 1 Green Bay |
+181 |
-202 |
31.1% |
31.6% |
0.5% |
| 1 New England |
+341 |
-394 |
19.8% |
15.8% |
-4.0% |
| 2 Baltimore |
+671 |
-850 |
11.3% |
14.1% |
2.8% |
| 3 New Orleans |
+460 |
-548 |
15.6% |
11.4% |
-4.2% |
| 5 Pittsburgh |
+1200 |
-2000 |
6.7% |
10.1% |
3.4% |
| 2 San Francisco |
+1300 |
-2300 |
6.2% |
7.1% |
0.9% |
| 3 Houston |
+6000 |
-13500 |
1.5% |
2.9% |
1.5% |
| 4 New York |
+2200 |
-3900 |
3.8% |
2.5% |
-1.4% |
| 6 Cincinnati |
+9211 |
-19211 |
1.0% |
2.2% |
1.3% |
| 5 Atlanta |
+5476 |
-12976 |
1.6% |
1.1% |
-0.5% |
| 6 Detroit |
+9500 |
-19500 |
0.9% |
0.8% |
-0.1% |
| 4 Denver |
+18572 |
-38572 |
0.5% |
0.3% |
-0.2% |
The best value plays for the Super Bowl are the two AFC North powers: Baltimore and Pittsburgh. The Steelers are +1200 to win it all as the No. 5 seed and is dealing with several injuries, but gets to play Denver in the first round. They are nearly 75 percent likely to advance to play Baltimore in the next round, and have the passing game to hurt the Patriots in a potential AFC Championship game match-up. The Ravens are slightly undervalued at +671 outpacing their translated betting odds by 2.8 percent. Baltimore gets to play the divisional round at home where it has played significantly better this season.
The worst values to win the Super Bowl are two of the high-powered offenses in the league: New Orleans and New England. The translated betting odds for both teams are at least four percent worse than their AccuScore simulated odds. The Saints and Patriots are two of the four most likely champions, but they are bettor favorites making their prices unappealing. The Patriots especially have to be questioned because of their horrendous pass defense.
Green Bay is the betting favorite at +181 to win the Super Bowl which translates to 31.1 percent. That is virtually identical to the 31.6 percent that the Packers win in AccuScore simulations.
AFC Playoffs
| AFC |
YES |
NO |
ODDS |
ACC |
+/- |
| 1 New England |
+112 |
-124 |
46.3% |
34.6% |
-11.8% |
| 2 Baltimore |
+222 |
-250 |
30.5% |
31.6% |
1.1% |
| 3 Houston |
+2226 |
-3626 |
4.3% |
7.9% |
3.6% |
| 4 Denver |
+7000 |
-14500 |
1.4% |
0.9% |
-0.5% |
| 5 Pittsburgh |
+541 |
-660 |
15.3% |
20.9% |
5.5% |
| 6 Cincinnati |
+4500 |
-7500 |
2.2% |
5.3% |
3.1% |
The Patriots are an even worse bet to win the AFC than to win the Super Bowl winning nearly 12 percent less often when comparing their simulated odds to their posted odds. Pittsburgh remains the best bet providing a 5.5 percent value at +541 again benefitting from a first round match-up with Denver. Houston and Cincinnati actually provide solid “value” because their odds are so long (Texans +2226, Bengals +4500). Neither are likely to actually reach the Super Bowl however combining for just over 13 percent.
NFC Playoffs
| NFC |
YES |
NO |
ODDS |
ACC |
+/- |
| 1 Green Bay |
-132 |
+120 |
56.0% |
49.8% |
-6.1% |
| 2 San Francisco |
+653 |
-822 |
13.1% |
17.0% |
3.9% |
| 3 New Orleans |
+298 |
-341 |
24.7% |
23.7% |
-1.0% |
| 4 New York |
+1300 |
-2300 |
7.0% |
6.6% |
-0.4% |
| 5 Atlanta |
+2500 |
-4500 |
3.8% |
3.1% |
-0.7% |
| 6 Detroit |
+4937 |
-12437 |
2.0% |
2.1% |
0.2% |
The lines for the NFC champion are much more accurate than for the AFC. Only the two top seeds, Green Bay and San Francisco, deviate more than one percent when comparing their posted odds to their simulation numbers. The Packers are -132 to reach the Super Bowl making them poor bets because they are at best 50/50 according to simulations. The 49ers though outpace their posted odds by nearly four percent and are the best value bet in the conference. San Francisco gets this weekend off to prepare, and will get a dome team (Detroit or New Orleans) outside at home in the divisional round.
New Orleans, New York, Atlanta, and Detroit all have their translated betting odds nearly equal their AccuScore simulated odds to win the NFC.
