1. Roddy White ESPN: 2 Yahoo: 2 CBS: 1

Roddy White ended last year leading the league in targets (179) and receptions (115). He and Reggie Wayne were the only receivers with more than 95 catches. Even with a relatively small 12.1 yards per reception, the sheer amount of catches propelled him to be second in the league in yards. He was arguably the most consistent receiver last year with 10 or more fantasy points in 11 out of 16 games and 7 or more points in 14 out of 16. He also had more than 40 yards in every game. The biggest question mark heading into this season is how the addition of Julio Jones will affect White’s workload. We suspect that Jones will take away some receptions, but also create more space for White downfield, thereby increasing his yards per catch. We have White projected to gain 16 more points than the second best receiver by getting the third most receptions (102), the most yards (1350), and the most touchdowns (11.35).

2. Calvin Johnson ESPN: 5 Yahoo: 2 CBS: 3

Megatron has shown that he can shine even with an unstable QB situation. Why should this year be any different? If Stafford can settle down, Calvin Johnson has the talent to be the top receiver in the NFL. While he has never surpassed 80 receptions in a season (77 last year), we are confident in our projection of 81 for this year. If he keeps up his career rate of 15 yards per catch, there is no reason why he cannot repeat his 2010 campaign. We project 1215 yards and 10.53 touchdowns, good enough to be the second best receiver in our rankings.

3. Andre Johnson ESPN: 1 Yahoo: 1 CBS: 2

With the emergence of Arian Foster, Andre Johnson’s 1500-yard seasons are behind him. Foster should make a run at 400 touches, taking the ball out of Andre’s hands. As the only receiving threat (not counting Foster) on the Texans, he should almost exclusively get double coverage. Nonetheless, we do have him projected to lead the league with 1381 yards. The difference is that we only project 6.51 touchdowns this year, as they will feed the rock to Foster in the red zone instead of giving the ball to Johnson on a fade route.

4. Greg Jennings ESPN: 3 Yahoo: 6 CBS: 4

Greg Jennings recovered from a weak 2009 season to put up top five numbers last year. But when you look at the stats, you see very little improvement other than the difference in touchdowns. He caught 68 balls for 1113 yards in ’09 and 76 balls for 1265 yards in ’10. While he went from 4 to 12 TD’s, he also went from 0 to 2 fumbles. The truth lies somewhere in between. We are projecting 1188 yards with 9.78 TD’s.

Out of the top four receivers, White, Megatron, and Jennings are all on teams that have one of the seven toughest pass schedules. They are talented enough to beat good defenses, but it is something to keep in mind.

5. Hakeem Nicks ESPN: 4 Yahoo: 4 CBS: 5

I don’t really have much to say about Hakeem Nicks. He is a consensus top tier receiver and he should repeat last year’s success. He is a slight injury risk, but he is worth it. The Giants get the fourth most favorable passing schedule this year, and he and Manningham should shred defenses. We project 1169 yards with 9.96 touchdowns.

6. Mike Williams ESPN: 14 Yahoo: 10 CBS: 6

Mike Williams (TB) is one of the few receivers that are projected for different success levels by all three rankings. He broke out last year with 964 yards and 11 touchdowns. With only one game of 100+ yards and a touchdown in 10 games, he will not win a fantasy week single handedly but should consistently pull his weight as a number one fantasy receiver. Freeman should give him ample opportunities to make big plays, enough to justify our projections of 1111 yards and 10.2 touchdowns.

7. Wes Welker ESPN: 20 Yahoo: 20 CBS: 11

ESPN and Yahoo are basing their ranking of Wes Welker mostly on last year. However, we think that Welker should return to his 110+ reception campaigns of 2007-2009. Early last year, he was still recovering from his ’09 injury. In only 86 receptions, he still amassed 7 touchdowns. Getting into the end zone was his problem heading in to last year, but our projection of 7.24 TD’s is feasible. While some think that Brady may spread the ball around, Welker had almost double the receptions than any other New England WR/TE last year. We project a league leading 114 catches. At the same yards per catch ratio as last year, that would amount to 1224 yards, which is a solid amount for a number one fantasy receiver.

8. DeSean Jackson ESPN: 11 Yahoo: 11 CBS: 14

DeSean Jackson is one of the more exciting options in fantasy football. While he can win any given fantasy week all by himself, his dependence on the big play makes him a risky play from week to week. Over the course of the season, we see him repeating last year’s numbers. We project him for only 46 receptions (with a league leading 19.7 yards/reception) and 917 yards. The Eagles get the second easiest pass schedule, so he should have plenty of opportunities for the home run pass. We have him pegged for 5.89 receiving touchdowns (6 last year) and 2.67 rush/return touchdowns (2 last year) to end up with a similar year as last. 9. Miles Austin ESPN: 10 Yahoo: 8 CBS: 15

We project that Miles Austin will repeat last year’s success with an almost identical 1081 yards and 7.46 TD’s. There is upside because he will get Romo instead of Kitna feeding him ball, but Dez Bryant looms in his shadow. Still, Austin didn’t reach 40 yards in 8 games last season, so he was closer to a DeSean Jackson, all or nothing type. That is still worthy of a low-end #1/high-end #2.

10. Vincent Jackson ESPN: 8 Yahoo: 13 CBS: 12

For those of you who don’t know, 2010 was last year. Hopefully, Vincent Jackson can continue his 2009 ways after a last year’s debacle. Whether or not Jackson ends up on San Diego, he should be a high-end #2 receiver for your fantasy team. He is not a consistent player but he should still be a plus for your team over the course of a season. We forecast that he will break 1000 yards and amass 8.81 touchdowns.

11. Reggie Wayne ESPN: 9 Yahoo: 12 CBS: 7

Reggie Wayne is exactly the player that you draft if you took risks in your first two rounds. While not a 10-touchdown guy with Collie in the mix, Wayne has played in all regular season games for the last nine years. We attribute his 12 drops last year to the amount of targets. He is bound to drop some, right? We forecast 89 rec/1079 yds/5.84 TD. Wayne is as consistent as they come, and as long as you don’t expect many touchdowns, he is a quality pick.

12. Mario Manningham ESPN: 22 Yahoo: 34 CBS: 22

Our next upset pick is Mario Manningham, and he is the highest real life #2 receiver in our rankings. The biggest problem with Manningham is the other receivers around him. Nicks is one of the top receivers in the league and Smith was flirting with another 1000-yard season until his injury. We have him repeating last year’s totals. I think if Smith signs elsewhere, Manningham is a great pick here, but if Smith returns with healthy knees, he will need to drop a bit in these rankings. We would still have him way above his current ESPN and CBS ranking. For comparison’s sake, we like him better than Mike Wallace.

13. Austin Collie ESPN: 24 Yahoo: 26 CBS: 26

Austin Collie is my pick for the best value on draft day. Last year, he was on his way to becoming the breakout player of the year before three concussions derailed his season. Through 9 games, he had matched his 2009 totals (and he was knocked out of one of the 9 games). If you extend the stats from the games he played last year over the course of a whole season, you get 103 receptions, 1153 yards, and 14 TD’s. Those are top 3 receiving numbers currently going in the twenties of the other rankings. He says the concussions are behind him, so we project 832 yards with 9.4 touchdowns.

14. Larry Fitzgerald ESPN: 7 Yahoo: 5 CBS: 9

With this ranking, it is safe to say that I will not own Larry Fitzgerald in any leagues this year. Without Kurt Warner, Fitzgerald’s stats fell to the lowest since 2006. It is for this reason alone that we rank Fitzgerald as the 14th best receiver and not higher. He will only be as good as the QB under center, and it is highly unlikely that Arizona will get a QB good enough to make Fitzgerald worth drafting as a #1 receiver. Kolb is not good enough for us to project a season better than last for him. We forecast 85 receptions, 1056 yards, and 5.76 touchdowns.

15. Jeremy Maclin ESPN: 15 Yahoo: 15 CBS: 17

With Vick, McCoy, and Jackson all a part of Philly’s potent offense, Jeremy Maclin may have a tough time getting the looks he deserves. Jackson had 47 receptions for 1056 yards, McCoy had 78 receptions for 592 yards and rushed for over 1000 yards, and Vick rushed for 676 yards. While we don’t think that he will score 10 touchdowns again, we do think another 900-yard/8 TD season is in the making, and the other rankings agree with us.

16. Marques Colston ESPN: 16 Yahoo: 16 CBS: 19

Marques Colston is the archetypal #2 fantasy WR. He should repeat last year’s totals of about 1000 yards and 7 touchdowns. He has some injury risk, but all of these receivers in the teens have some risk about them. It will be interesting to see how Payton’s offense spreads the ball around, as Colston caught more balls for fewer yards last year.

17. Mike Wallace ESPN: 6 Yahoo: 9 CBS:8

Like Fitzgerald, I don’t think I will own Mike Wallace in any leagues this year. He is an exciting player to watch, but there is almost no chance he has another double-digit TD season. As a receiver, we value him similarly to DeSean Jackson and Mario Manningham. However, Manningham is available rounds later and Jackson is projected to have another 2.67 non-receiving touchdowns. Wallace is a huge deep threat, but last year he had an unrepeatable amount of long touchdown receptions. We project 6.81 touchdowns since he is still not used extensively in the red zone. We see him more of a 50 rec/950 yard guy than a 60 rec/1250 yard guy.

18. Dwayne Bowe ESPN: 13 Yahoo: 7 CBS: 10

Dwayne Bowe scored 15 touchdowns. Let me repeat that. Dwayne Bowe scored 15 touchdowns. There is no way on Earth that he will approach that number again. First of all, 13 of his 15 TD’s came in a 7-week span (weeks 6-12) against the lower tier pass defenses. In fact, all 5 of his multi-TD games came against bottom 5 defenses. This year, Kansas City has the fourth toughest pass schedule. They get to face the #1 pass defense San Diego twice as well as Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Green Bay. Yes, this means that we are not too high on Cassel either. Both Cassel and Bowe looked pretty bad against good defenses last year. To cap it off, Bowe ended the season with only 14 receptions in his last 5 games combined. We project a similar 69 receptions and 1001 yards (last year he had 72 receptions for 1162 yards), but with only 6.04 touchdowns. And with that he goes from the #2 overall WR to a low-end #2 on any given fantasy team.

19. Brandon Marshall ESPN: 23 Yahoo: 16 CBS: 13

Brandon Marshall had over 100 receptions from ’07 to ’09, but dropped down to 86 last year. He scored 7,6, and 10 touchdowns in those years and then dropped to 3 in 2010. We think his future value lies somewhere in between. A shaky QB situation never helps, but Miami does get a favorable passing schedule. He is projected for 92 reception/1051 yards/5 TD’s making him a low end #2 fantasy play with upside if he can recapture his Denver ways.

20. Dez Bryant ESPN: 12 Yahoo: 14 CBS: 23

Dez Brant should join the upper echelon of wide receivers in due time, but we are betting that that year will not be 2011. He is a very risky proposition with all of the offseason issues and problems with the playbook, his finances, etc. In fact, he is so risky that Dallas is thinking about retaining Roy Williams as an insurance policy. Now, we have him projected as a poor man’s DeSean Jackson with upside and a lot of downside. We see him accumulating 55 receptions for 732 yards with 8.76 all-purpose touchdowns.

21. Steve Johnson ESPN: 19 Yahoo: 18 CBS: 19

Steve Johnson broke out last season with over 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns. But when you look deeper, you see that 6 of his 10 touchdowns were scored in the first 7 weeks and that he only scored once in his last 6 games. He broke 100 yards passing in 3 games, but never got more than 72 yards in any other game. We don’t see this mercurial pattern changing, as Buffalo faces the top 2 pass defenses and 3 out of the 4 worst pass defenses this year. We see a similar season to last but with fewer touchdowns, thereby dropping him to a #3 fantasy WR.

22. Steve Smith ESPN: 34 Yahoo: 22 CBS: 34

Steve Smith should flirt with another 1000-yard season, but the question marks surrounding him explain ESPN’s and CBS’s ranking of 34. First of all, we don’t know if he will stay with Carolina for another season, and he is coming off of a weak 554-yard/2 TD season. But we all know that we don’t draft off last year’s stat line. We project a season closer to ’09 than ’10, but our forecast of 994 yards and 5.18 touchdowns leaves him just as a #3 receiver.

23. Anquan Boldin ESPN: 28 Yahoo: 23 CBS: 20

Anquan Boldin’s 837-yard season may seem like a disappointment, but we think this is actually the first step of decline for the Ravens WR. Entering his age 31 season, his days of separating from cornerbacks may be behind him. For this reason, we think that this 800ish yard/7 TD season is more likely than a return to 1000+ yard seasons of old.

24. Brandon Lloyd ESPN: 17 Yahoo: 17 CBS: 18

In his 8-year career, Brandon Lloyd’s previous career highs were 565 yards in 2004 and 733 yards in 2005. He did not surpass 365 yards in any of the next four seasons. So, how is it that he suddenly totaled 1448 yards in 2010, over 1300 yards more than ’09? A huge amount of success came from long receptions as indicated by 18.8 yards/catch. It is impressive that he could accumulate almost 1500 yards from Kyle Orton, but now he will have to face an even greater challenge, Tim Tebow. Head Coach Fox has said that he will shift to a more run-oriented offense this year, and Denver has the fifth toughest pass schedule. We project a solid 58 receptions for 1025 yards but with only 4.17 touchdowns, thereby dropping his value from #1 overall to a #3 fantasy receiver.

25. Jacoby Ford ESPN: 54 Yahoo: 39 CBS: 49

Jacoby Ford is the next DeSean Jackson. Coach Hugh Jackson says that they will give Jones an expanded role, and why shouldn’t they? Heyward-Bay is his main competition. Ford is one of the fastest WR in the league; he ran a 4.28 at the ’10 combine. We only have him projected for 45 receptions and 2.41 receiving touchdowns, but his remarkable speed should keep his yards per catch ratio high and should help him score a couple return touchdowns. These attributes make him a potential fantasy starter. At the very least, draft him as your #4 receiver and reap the benefits of one of the most talented young wide outs in the game.

26. Mike Thomas ESPN: 39 Yahoo: 47 CBS: 37

With no more Sims-Walker, Mike Thomas emerges as the #1 receiver in Jacksonville. He had a successful campaign with 820 receiving yards, 358 return yards, and even 114 rushing yards. We project a similar season with enough upside to become a must-start sometime this year. Either way, he is currently being drafted as a backup fantasy WR. We value he and Ford similarly and you should be able to get one of the two potential stars as a fourth receiver.

27. Santonio Holmes ESPN: 18 Yahoo: 23 CBS: 21

Santonio Holmes probably has the best chance to outdo our projections. Assuming the Jets retain him, he has a great chance of improving on last year’s numbers since he missed weeks 1 through 4 due to suspension. In his five full seasons, he has registered 824, 942, 821, 1248, and 746 yards. As it is, his ’09 season looks like an outlier. He has only surpassed 6 touchdowns once. Because of this, we are comfortable with our projection of 51 rec/805 yards/6.44 TD. 28. Pierre Garcon ESPN: 31 Yahoo: 30 CBS: 24

Pierre Garcon is the odd man out in the deepest receiving corps in the league. With Wayne, Collie, and Clark getting more targets than he, Garcon will have to produce from the start in order to get a significant amount of looks. On the pass happy Colts, Garcon should play his role well. We just don’t think he’ll be worth starting on your fantasy team week in and week out.

29. Percy Harvin ESPN: 26 Yahoo: 28 CBS: 33

I will not be drafting Harvin, despite our ranking. He says that he is “optimistic” that his migraine problem has been solved. That does not sound too confident in my book. He does not have a stable QB situation that gives him immediate starting consideration. Assuming Sidney Rice returns, Harvin will probably lose some looks compared to last year. Minnesota has the toughest pass schedule and the second easiest run schedule, so getting the ball into Harvin’s hands may be harder than last year.

30. Derrick Mason ESPN: 47 Yahoo: 53 CBS: 36

We round out our top 30 with the veteran, Derrick Mason. While he is heading into his 15th NFL season, he still has some gas left in the tank. He is by no means a guaranteed starting option during the year, but we see him repeating last year’s numbers. He has played all 16 games in each of the last 8 seasons, so he is a solid pick if you took a gamble on upside receivers earlier in the draft. He still has great hands, so he should continue to get looks in the red zone.

Just Missed the Cut:

31. Devin Hester ESPN: 83 Yahoo: 65 CBS: 64
32. Deion Branch ESPN: 41 Yahoo: 40 CBS: 28
33. Kenny Britt ESPN : 21 Yahoo: 21 CBS: 25
34. Santana Moss ESPN: 32 Yahoo: 33 CBS: 30
35. Mike Williams (Sea) ESPN: 38 Yahoo: 32 CBS: 35

Click Here for the Top QBs
Click Here for the Top RBs
Click Here for the Top TEs

Try AccuScore Membership Free now for the best statistically Simulated Projections in the industry