1. Arian Foster ESPN: 2 Yahoo: 1 CBS: 1

Now, one could argue that Arian Foster’s breakout season had no precedent and that he is not worth the risk of the first overall fantasy pick. ESPN ranks Adrian Peterson ahead of Foster because All Day has a proven track record. Foster moved up the draft boards last year after the injury to Ben Tate. He had a monster 41-point game to open the season against the Colts. He never looked back and ended the season with 313 fantasy points, an astounding 81 points more than the second best back (Peterson). With five yards a carry, there is no reason that Ben Tate should take a significant amount of touches from Foster. We have Foster projected for 304 carries, 1569 rushing yards, and 14.91 touchdowns. And that doesn’t even include the receiving stats. We project a league-leading 69 receptions to go along with another 2.93 touchdowns. That all adds up to a repeat campaign of 312 points, 69 more points (4.5 more per game) than our projections for Peterson. Now, is this the type of talent that you ignore in order to take the established veteran? I don’t think so.

2. Rashard Mendenhall ESPN: 8 Yahoo: 8 CBS: 10

What? Are you crazy? First, just hear us out. Now, Mendenhall is not as good as most of the other top ten running backs, but he is in the best situation. Pittsburgh is often ahead in games, so the play calling should help Mendenhall this year. He has been consistent in his playing all regular season games in each of the past two seasons. Last year, he had 14 or more carries in all but one game. It should be no surprise that we are projecting 335 carries for Mendenhall this year. We have him projected only 4.17 yards per carry, and some may see this as a weakness. However, we see it as a sign of consistency that his game does not hinge on breaking a huge run every game. He is also the goal line back, so we are comfortable with our projection of 13.86 rushing touchdowns (only to be surpassed by Arian Foster). With this huge workload, Mendenhall suddenly emerges as a top tier back. So even if you feel more comfortable drafting Peterson and Johnson ahead of Mendenhall, he should pay dividends as the fourth pick (or higher).

3. Adrian Peterson ESPN: 1 Yahoo: 2 CBS: 2

Another great year is in the making for All Day. First of all, it seems that Peterson’s fumbling issues are behind him as he only fumbled once last season after 15 times the previous two years. He is the only high caliber player on the Vikings offense. This can be seen as a positive and a negative. The offensive line may have troubles, and defenses will be able to key in on Peterson with a rookie quarterback behind center. But Peterson should get a huge number of touches. Minnesota has the hardest pass schedule, so they will need to run to have any success. Peterson faced a harder than average run schedule last year but will be able to face the second easiest run schedule this year. For this reason, we forecast a league leading 336 carries for Peterson. We predict another top tier season and project 1430 rushing yards and 11.38 rushing touchdowns.

4. Chris Johnson ESPN: 3 Yahoo: 3 CBS: 3

Chris Johnson is the consensus #3 pick (if it weren’t for our speculative Mendenhall pick). We also think that his numbers will be closer to last year’s 1364 yards than to his 2006 yards two years ago. However, he does get the most favorable schedule for running backs this year as he faces Jacksonville twice, Denver, Carolina, and Buffalo. We project 1327 rushing yards and 10.11 rushing touchdowns.

5. Frank Gore ESPN: 9 Yahoo: 11 CBS: 9

Having Frank Gore as the fifth best running back may seem like a stretch, but when he is not injured, he is shredding defenses. He is also a receiving threat and is projected to have 540 receiving yards with 2.94 touchdowns. Up until his Week 12 injury last year, he only scored 5 touchdowns out of over 1300 combined yards. That ratio should improve. He is a pretty big drop from our top four running backs but is our top projection from the second tier of first round running backs.

6. Jamaal Charles ESPN: 4 Yahoo: 4 CBS: 4

Jamaal Charles had an insane 6.4 yards per carry last year. He cannot be counted on to keep that effectiveness this year, for much of his yardage came from two or so big carries in each game. If he only were to have one big gain each week, he would lose his edge in total yards. He was only given 230 carries with that amazing success. He lost carries, including goal line opportunities, to Thomas Jones, and there is no sign of that changing this year. We are still projecting a league wide second best 5.01 yards/carry but with only 231 carries. He only got more than 16 carries in three games last year, and the regression in average gain will significantly suppress his value. To cap it off, Kansas City had the third most favorable run schedule LAST YEAR, so a small decrease in production should be expected.

7. Michael Turner ESPN: 10 Yahoo: 6 CBS: 6

We would consider Michael Turner to be one of the safest bets for running backs. Last year, Turner had a successful albeit unspectacular 12 touchdowns on 1371 rushing yards without significant receiving yards. While Turner was not a third down back, he did get many goal line opportunities and led the league in carries with 334. Atlanta gets the seventh least favorable passing schedule while getting the sixth most favorable running schedule, so Turner should get plenty of carries. We project 1336 yards and 12.44 touchdowns with minimal receiving stats.

8. Maurice Jones-Drew ESPN: 5 Yahoo: 5 CBS: 8

While Maurice Jones-Drew had a respectable year considering he missed the last two games, most of his rushing success came in a six game span and he likely hurt your team for the first seven weeks. Not to mention the fact that your #1 back was unavailable for the playoffs. As indicated by the ESPN and Yahoo rankings, there is upside if Jones-Drew comes back one hundred percent, but that is no guarantee with knee injuries. We project 296 carries over the full season for 1210 yards and another 55 receptions for 393 yards. If he can get close to 350 touches this year, a big if, then he is a legitimate top five back. He is projected to score 9.43 touchdowns (combined rush/receiving), about the same rate that he scored last season. Not helping him is Jacksonville’s schedule, which is the fifth toughest against the run.

9. Darren McFadden ESPN: 12 Yahoo: 10 CBS: 7

Even when coming off a breakout season, Darren McFadden’s injury risk has not decreased. He has never played in more than 13 games in a season. He missed weeks 5 and 6 last year due to injury and his toe issues came back by the season’s end. These risks are significant enough for the Raiders to look to retain Bush as an insurance option. We project a 229 carry season, which would be a career high, to go along with 52 receptions. If he can approach 300 touches, McFadden is a first round back. Regardless, he is the most risky to repeat out of the top ten backs, never before having gained 500 yards, let alone 1000, before 2010.

10. Ray Rice ESPN: 6 Yahoo: 7 CBS: 5

Ray Rice is one of the more talented backs on this list. However, he scored 8 total touchdowns in his breakout 2009 campaign and only 6 touchdowns last year. Those 6 touchdowns only came in only four out of sixteen games, likely tanking the teams that drafted him. If that does not improve, Rice may not be worth the first round pick that all of the other sites project him to be. Also, he only surpassed 100 rushing yards twice last year. The main question that surrounds Rice is whether he will take the goal line carries this year. With McGahee’s return in question, Rice may indeed improve his TD totals. But if the Ravens do sign McGahee or another back that will siphon touchdowns away from Rice, our projection of 5.97 rushing touchdowns and 1.72 receiving touchdowns shows that he is not worth the mid-first round pick.

11. Steven Jackson ESPN: 11 Yahoo: 13 CBS: 12

Steven Jackson is one of few backs in the NFL who have six straight 1000-yard seasons. With only one run last year over 27 yards and a pretty weak 3.8 yards per carry, much of his value is tied to usage. Fortunately, he had the second most carries with 330. Any improvement from Bradford should help Jackson manage the workload. This year, we project a 1072-yard season from Jackson but with an extra 2 touchdowns, keeping his value about what it was last year. He is a solid pick for those who drafted injury risks like McFadden at the end of the first round.

12. Ahmad Bradshaw ESPN: 17 Yahoo: 16 CBS: 14

This pick will have an asterisk until Ahmad Bradshaw signs with a team. After Bradshaw, you will be hard pressed to find many sure-thing fantasy starters. He should be a solid second/third round pick, and I am guessing that I will end up with him as my second running back in many leagues. The New York Giants had the hardest run schedule in the league last year, which may help explain his seven fumbles. With an improved schedule, he should have a solid chance of repeating last year’s numbers. If he signs with a team without a goal line back like Jacobs, he could become one of the top RB values. If he signs with the Giants, we project a 240 carry/1073 yard/7.74 TD campaign with solid receiving numbers and upside if he gets goal line carries.

13. LeSean McCoy ESPN: 7 Yahoo: 9 CBS: 11

LeSean McCoy is the running back with the highest chance of outdoing our projections, but I cannot justify moving him up the list. A healthy Michael Vick has the potential to flirt with 1000 yards rushing. Andy Reid always runs a pass-oriented offense, and the Eagles get the second most favorable passing schedule this year. While we do project him to have the second most receptions (behind Foster) for a running back, he will still have to compete with downfield threats Jackson and Maclin for touches. He is not a goal line back, and he only got 207 carries last year. Even though he is talented, our projected 194 carries for 880 yards shoes that he is not first round material for a running back.

14. Shonn Greene ESPN: 26 Yahoo: 15 CBS: 18

Yikes! I wonder what ESPN is thinking. Maybe they have LT ranked ahead of him…Greene disappointed those who gambled on him last year as LT’s resurgence took the starting gig away from Greene. As the year went on, more and more carries came Greene’s way. LT never got more than 10 fantasy points after week 6. As indicated by our projection of 315 carries, we think that Greene will definitively take the reins as the leading back for the Jets. Although he will not get many looks on passing downs, Greene will get the goal line carries if LT regresses or gets injured. If that happens, our projection of 6.3 touchdowns would be the under and Greene would jump into the top ten fantasy backs as a potential first round value.

15. Matt Forte ESPN: 15 Yahoo: 14 CBS: 13

Matt Forte bounced back from a disappointing ’09 to produce a solid 200 fantasy points last year. The Bears gave him fewer than 300 touches, and with a bigger workload, Forte has the potential to be a high-end #2 fantasy back. In his way is Chester Taylor, who threatens to take a large chunk of the goal line carries. We are forecasting only 844 yards on the ground but also a league leading among RB 595 yards receiving. Unless he somehow gets more goal line carries, he remains only a solid #2 back with upside. By the way, Forte is the last RB that I would feel comfortable starting.

16. Knowshon Moreno ESPN: 16 Yahoo: 32 CBS: 17

If and only if the Broncos do not sign a significant back in free agency do I rank Knowshon Moreno this highly. With some critics already calling him a “bust”, the former first round pick has rushed for 1726 yards and 12 touchdowns over the past two years. Moreno has had lingering injuries, so it is probably worth it to give him another chance at the starting job. Moreno may have to earn his way out of a platoon, which John Fox seems to have an inclination towards, but the coach also seems set on transitioning the team to a run-oriented system. It is unknown who will get the third down reps and the goal line carries. With all of these variables, it is understandable why Yahoo ranks him 32nd. It’s just a good thing that Yahoo doesn’t run the Broncos.

17. LeGarrete Blount ESPN: 20 Yahoo: 17 CBS: 15

LeGarrete Blount burst on to the scene in the middle of last season as the main back for Tampa Bay. He was one of the top running backs in the second half of the season, as almost all of his 1007 yards rushing came in week 7 and on. Blount does have his limitations; he will not reach 100 yards receiving in a given season. However, he should improve his touchdown total from last year. We project 8.56 touchdowns and 1167 yards rushing. He is a solid pick as your second running back and you should value him as a poor man’s Michael Turner.

18. Peyton Hills ESPN: 13 Yahoo: 12 CBS: 16

Peyton Hills was the fourth best fantasy RB last year. So, why is he not projected as a top ten back this year? The answer: he did not have to compete with any backs for carries, for Hardesty was injured last year. We do see Hills putting together another solid season, but Hardesty should take away enough touches from Hills to render him a lesser fantasy option. We only have Hills forecasted to get 196 carries and 48 receptions. Not working in Hills favor is Cleveland’s schedule, which is the second toughest against the run. Hills also fumbled a prodigious eight times last year. These factors lead us to the conclusion that Hills is best left to someone else this fantasy season.

19. Cedric Benson ESPN: 23 Yahoo: 22 CBS: 19

Cedric Benson’s fantasy value will be tied to where he ends up in free agency. As a between-the-tackles runner, his worth will be directly proportional to the amount of touches that he gets this season. If he can approach 300 rushes, he will be a quality #2 fantasy back. We optimistically project 293 rushes for 985 yards with downside if he gets placed into a platoon.

20. Joseph Addai ESPN: 35 Yahoo: 28 CBS: 28

Joseph Addai is another free agent whose value is tied to where he ends up. Though Indianapolis does not extensively use the run, Brown didn’t impress last year, and Addai should produce solid, albeit unspectacular, numbers if he returns to the Colts. While ESPN is not bullish on Addai, we are projecting nearly identical stat lines. Addai does not have much upside, but you will know what you are going to get making him a spot-start option in fantasy football this year.

Just Missed the Cut:

21. DeAngelo Williams ESPN: 18 Yahoo: 19 CBS: 22
22. Felix Jones ESPN: 24 Yahoo: 29 CBS: 23
23. Ryan Matthews ESPN: 19 Yahoo: 18 CBS: 21
24. Brandon Jacobs ESPN: 40 Yahoo: 45 CBS: 31
25. BenJarvus Green Ellis ESPN: 22 Yahoo: 26 CBS: 20

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