Written by Jon Lee

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Analyst’s Top 2 NFL Week 1 Picks

Free Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 at Denver Broncos
The lasting memory from last season was Tim Tebow ending Pittsburgh’s season on the first play in overtime of the Wild Card playoff round. Today Tebow is in New York and Peyton Manning is now the quarterback in Denver. That might represent the largest upgrade in quarterback play in the history of all football. Tebow’s miracle comebacks obscured the fact that Denver was a very poor team that performed far worse than a typical 8-8 team. Manning (assuming health) is a massive upgrade at quarterback, but the gains made need to overcome the gulf towards a typical .500 before improvements beyond just a Wild Card round appearance.

Pittsburgh is still one of the best teams in the AFC, and at this point of the year the defense is fully healthy. This line gives the bettor points to take the better squad which obviously is always the best betting situation. The line opened at 3 points in the spring, but was quickly bet down the current state during the summer. It has settled right where it is or at 1.0 in some places.

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New England -5.5 at Tennessee Titans

This seems like the obvious pick of the week, and most of the public is all over the New England side of the line. The line however has actually dropped a full point over the last week, and even all the way down to 5.0 in certain books. That means a large bettor (or bettors) has backed the Titans, but I cannot understand why except some sort of blind faith in the talents of Jake Locker. Certain analysts seem to be impressed by Locker, but anyone that saw him play multiple times over his time at Washington knows that he was just a great athlete masquerading at quarterback. The most damning fact of his tenure was that immediately after getting replaced by Keith Price the Washington offense exploded in productivity. Locker was not an accurate passer, and against fast defenses that could contain his running he was helpless.

The Patriots have had all offseason to scheme and prepare for Locker. He will need to actually make his progressions and beat a Belicheck designed game plan with his passing ability, and I have no faith he has made the needed improvement in just one summer. New England’s defense is healthy at this point, and has the pass rusher it sorely needed in Chandler Jones. This is AccuScore’s most probable favorite to cover at 61.4 percent at -5.5. Obviously I like it even better at 5.0 which is still available some places.

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