Written by Rohit Ghosh
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All of AccuScore’s NFL Week 4 Picks
NFL Sunday: San Francisco
The Arizona Cardinals head into Sunday's matchup with the San Francisco 49ers having won four consecutive games against the opponent. Most books in Vegas have them as 6.5-point favorites at home.
What to Watch For
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The biggest culprit for the Cardinals 1-2 record to start the season is their offense. Pass protection hasn't been anything to write home about, but they fortunately face a 49ers team that has recorded just three sacks on the season -- second-lowest in the league.
Arizona QB Carson Palmer is projected to finish with 204 passing yards and 2 TDs. He averages just 0.4 INTs per sim.
In the Cardinals' 28-17 loss to the Cowboys last week, Dallas had three possessions starting at the 50-yard line or better. That's just absurd considering games are decided by possessions and that sort of lack of discipline is just handing the game to the opposition. Inside linebacker Deone Bucannon is projected to return to the lineup this weekend -- watch for Arizona's defense to finally play a crucial and positive role.
The Arizona defense averages 1.2 forced turnovers per simulated matchup.
Betting Trends vs Sim Data
Whereas Vegas has the total set at 44.5, the sim data has it 4.5 points lower at 40 -- indicating a pick on the UNDER. The UNDER is a three-star (out of four) hot trend, staying below 44.5 in 63 percent of sims.
Given the lack of offensive talent on the 49ers and an Arizona defense projected to finally live up to expectations, the lean is towards the UNDER. At least, according to our data. Recent betting trends suggest otherwise.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 8 of Arizona's last 10 games
Betting Trends Against the Spread (ATS)<>
• 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
• 49ers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games in October.
• The Cardinals are 9-2 straight up (SU) in their last 11 games as a favorite of 7.5 or more. The line opened at 7.5 for AZ.
FREE Analyst's Pick
If you're able to get Arizona at -6.5, lay the points and take the UNDER. The UNDER has been a trend at home for Arizona, with eight of their last eleven staying below the total. They're averaging below 19 points per game this season.
