Written by AccuScore Staff

NCAA Money Line Pick - Iowa Hawkeyes @ Minnesota Golden Gophers

Winnings of four of their last five games, the Iowa Hawkeyes head up to Minnesota still competing in the Big Ten West race. Led by a defense that gives up just 20 points per game, Iowa will look to its defense once again to get this victory on the road.

Las Vegas has Iowa as -125 ML favorites. After 10,000 simulations, AccuScore gives Texas a 64.4 percent chance of winning. Based on AccuScore data, Texas should be at about -180. While both Vegas and AccuScore pick the same winner, the discrepancy in probabilities makes the -125 that much more appealing, and that much more of a lock.
Over Iowa QB Jake Rudock's last three games, he has thrown for 5 TDs and just one INT. He's projected to finish Saturday's matchup with 212 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, and a passer rating of 124.2.

One of the biggest indicators in the simulations was turnover differential. Iowa has a 38% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 75% of the time.

Supporting Trend: Iowa has won 13 of its last 14 games when allowing 24 points or less. They allow an average of 20 this season.Our ATS simulations show Iowa as a 6 point favorite. Compared to -1 in many bookmakers, this is also worth to check.