Written by Jon Lee
Follow @thejonlee on Twitter
Top 4 College Football Picks for Week 10
Jon Lee is 7-3 the last 3 weeks on his college football picks. Our expert is back for week 10 of the season with another 4 picks he feels pretty strongly about, including an Oregon vs USC pick against the spread. Only one of these picks is free for non-members, so if you’re not a member, sign up now! If you are a member, log in to see all picks with expert analysis.
With our analyst on fire in both the NFL and college football, AccuScore is running special promotion. Sign up now using the coupon code football2012 and get an annual membership for 20% off! Membership includes every sport on the site including NCAAF, NBA, NFL, MLB, College Basketball, and many more. This is a limited time offer, so Sign Up today!
Indiana -1.5 vs. Iowa
This is a match-up of two bad teams, but Indiana has the advantage being at home, and having the one solid unit on the field. The Hoosiers have the best passing offense in the Big 10 which translates to the second best offense, and third best scoring offense. Iowa’s defense is middle of the pack in the conference, but is just ninth in pass efficiency defense. Indiana’s strength lines up perfectly against Iowa’s weakness. Iowa also has an extremely poor offense ranking 105th in the NCAA in scoring, and it will be without leading rusher Mark Weisman. Indiana wins nearly 63 percent of simations covering the spread nearly 60 percent of the time as well. There is also a 40 percent chance of a double digit win for IU.
Penn State -3.5 at Purdue
Penn State is winning simulations 66 percent of the time by more than 7 points on average. It is projected to cover the spread 58 percent of the time, and wins by double digits 45 percent of the time. The Nittany Lions flat out are the better team, and have proven to be a well-coached bunch. It’s hard to undersell how good a job Bill O’Brien has done thus far in an impossible situation. Purdue has lost four straight games, and is struggling to score points. Penn State again has a very solid defense, and the offense has been competent enough to take advantage of field position.
Oregon -8.5 at USC
This line opened at -7 or even -6 at some places, and has continually gone up as money pours in for the Ducks. The line was set incorrectly as even at -8.5 or -9, almost all the money is still with the Ducks. I like Oregon as well for a multitude of reasons as sims have Oregon winning by 10 points on average. USC has both depth and penalty issues, particularly on defense. Both of these things are exacerbated when playing teams that play uptempo, and no team plays at a lightning pace quite like Oregon. The Trojans are appear to be a soft team mentally based on their quotes after both their losses this season. Players talked about how they weren’t ready for either game, and weren’t prepared. In both games I thought they didn’t quite know how to react to being down on the scoreboard after the entire offseason was built around how invincible the team was. USC also has yet to beat a team that currently has a winning record. Oregon is steamrolling towards the BCS championship, and this is likely the first game Chip Kelly will stay on the accelerator into the fourth quarter.
Tulane +5.5 vs. Rice
Here’s a case of two terrible teams playing each other. The computer however has these squads relatively equal in their terribleness with Tulane winning at home 50.2 percent of the time yet getting 5.5 points. I have only seen Rice play once, and have not seen Tulane all year. This is purely a small computer value play based on the fact that a certified bad team in Rice is giving nearly six points on the road.
