Written by Jon Lee
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Analyst’s Top 3 Picks for Week 9
AccuScore’s NCAA Football Analyst is on FIRE…Last week, he went 3-1 on his picks. The week before that, he was 2-1. That means Jon Lee is 5-2 over the past two weeks, and this week, he’s got 3 more picks. All three picks this week are against the spread, and only one of the three is free and visible for non users:
Free Pick: Oregon State -4 @ Washington
Sean Mannion is back from injury, and will start this game for the Beavers. Despite solid play from Cody Vaz the last two weeks, Mannion still represents a significant upgrade at quarterback. The Beavers win about two-thirds of simulations by nearly eight points on average. They also win by double digits 45 percent of the time covering 55 percent of the time. Washington, against FBS competition this season, is averaging just 15.5 points per game. Steve Sarkisian, in each of his four seasons, has never built a solid offensive line and this season is no different. It is virtually impossible to build a solid offense without at least serviceable offensive line play. The Huskies allow nearly eight tackles for loss and three sacks a game. Oregon State meanwhile, has a great defense this season allowing less than three yards per carry against, and just 16.5 points per game. The Beavers should have a field day attacking on defense and making opportunistic plays on offense.
There are 2 more picks against the spread from our Analyst who’s 5-2 the past two weeks.
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2. Clemson -12 @ Wake Forest - #Winner!
The ACC is truly a two team conference this season: Florida State and Clemson. The Tigers win 82 percent of simulations by more than 16 points on average. They cover 61 percent of the time, and win by double digits nearly 65 percent of the time. Clemson averages 6.17 yards per play while Wake Forest averages just 4.79 yards per play. The Deacons have averaged just 19 points per game over their last three games and that was against Duke, Maryland, and Virginia. That trio is not exactly murderer’s row, and Clemson is a step up in competition. While the Tigers are not a shutdown defense, they are explosive on offense. Wake cannot score 20 points and hope to stay within 10 of Clemson. One final pair of stats: Clemson converts a whopping 52 percent of third-downs while Wake Forest allows a 44.6 percent third-down conversion rate. Everything points to a huge point total for Clemson while Wake doesn’t have the offense to keep up.
3. Texas A&M -14 @ Auburn
Similar to the previous game, the Aggies are a super-charged offense going against a team that can’t hope to score enough points to keep up. Johnny Manziel has been death to every defense he’s faced outside of Florida and LSU. Those two teams however are top five in the country, and boast some of the most athletic players in the nation. That description is the opposite of this year’s Auburn squad. The Tigers are basically searching for a new coach, and are ready to throw Gene Chizik out the door. He is well under-.500 without Cam Newton on his team. The one thing Kevin Sumlin and Manziel have proven this season without a doubt is their ability to put up points against weaker competition. Auburn has scored more than 20 points just once this season, and it took overtime and a Sun Belt opponent for it to happen. The Tigers are doubtful to hold A&M to 34 points.
