Written by Jon Lee
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College Football Picks: 11-4 past 4 weeks…3 New Picks
Free Pick of the week
Northwestern +7.5 at Michigan State
This line has moved towards the Spartans which makes me like the pick even better. I took this game on Tuesday when it was 6.5 and now there is a cushion against a push. Northwestern covers 7.5 in over 60 percent of simulations, and wins outright in nearly 42 percent of simulations. The Wildcats are 8-1 against the spread this season, and it has shown it has the ability to put points on the board. The Spartans conversely average just 16.5 points at home which includes games against Iowa and Eastern Michigan. AccuScore projects the Spartans to score 26 points which means Northwestern only needs to score 19 to cover. The Spartans have a good defense, but have shown weakness against dual-threat quarterbacks allowing 205 rushing yards to Taylor Martinez, 136 to Braxton Miller, and 96 to Denard Robinson. Kain Colter should pose a similar threat.
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LSU -18.5 vs. Ole Miss
Has Zach Mettenberger figured it out? It appears that way having thrown for 571 yards and 3 touchdowns against Alabama and Mississippi State. Ole Miss is a clear step down in competition with LSU winning 90 percent of simulations and score nearly 40 points on average. The Rebels likely will have trouble putting up points against this Tiger defense particularly on the road. The development of Mettenberger makes LSU much more multiple and dangerous on offense so I like them by 20 in this spot.
Louisiana-Monroe -10 vs. North Texas
The Warhawks are 10 points favorites by the oddsmakers and by our simulations. That line is actually low because quarterback Kolton Browning is questionable for Saturday. Browning did practice on Wednesday so it is possible he could start or at least see some action. AccuScore is currently projecting a 50-50 chance Browning plays. Either way, I still like this game for the Warhawks. Back-up Cody Wells was able to throw for 357 yards and a 70% completion rate against Arkansas State last week in a loss. Arkansas State has one of the best defenses in the Sun Belt, and while Wells is not a runner like Browning he can sling it pretty well. North Texas is poor on the road allowing a 150 QB rating and 70% completion rate it its opponents. Even subtracting the games North Texas has played against LSU and Kansas State, its offense has been mediocre averaging just 22 points per game. The Warhawks are a much better team at home averaging 0.5 yards more per play.
