By Jonathan Lee and Bart Lopez
Week 9 was yet another winning week for our resident experts, pushing the season record to 30-19-3. There are six college football picks this week with a decidedly Pac-12 flavor for week 10.
JON’S EXPERT PICKS
USC (-21) at Colorado
Perhaps no other team has suffered more major injuries than Colorado. The Buffs have lost multiple starters on both sides of the ball for the season. While they do get back RB Rodney Stewart and WR Paul Richardson this week, both have sat out multiple weeks now and are still not at 100 percent. USC has finally played to its true talent level in recent weeks, and that level is significantly higher than that of Colorado. The Buffs are the only winless team in the Pac-12. USC has some injury issues of its own at running back, but that could be an actual blessing because that leaves the best player of the bunch, Curtis McNeal, as the main man to carry the ball. He should be in for a big day.
Stanford (-20.5) at Oregon State
The Cardinal set a record by beating 10 straight teams by 25 or more points prior to last week’s game. That had never been done before in the poll era. Stanford was able to pull that off behind the brilliance of Andrew Luck, and superior line play. USC had the athletes to give Stanford problems particularly at the skill positions. Oregon State does not have those same athletes. The Beavers do have some talent at the skill spots, but they are largely inexperienced. The AccuScore sim line for this game is actually -23 points, and the computer has a perfect 8-0 record against the spread in Stanford games. Both the computer and I expect the Cardinal to use its power run game to punish the Beavers and for Luck to put on the finishing touches on the scoreboard.
UNLV vs. Boise State OVER 59.5 Points
This game has an absurdly high line of Boise State -42. Average simulations have Boise scoring 55 points on average. By all accounts UNLV is a terrible team, and the only way for the Broncos to score points with pollsters and the computers it to put up actual points on the board. They should do that with ease against the Rebels, and with such a huge lead late there will little incentive to keep playing hard on defense. In recent games, Air Force scored 16 points in the 2nd half against Boise while Fresno State got its only touchdown in the 4th quarter. Boise very well could be ahead by 50 points late, and it would only take one UNLV score to push this game to the Over. AccuScore has a very good track record with these two teams going a combined 9-2 when picking totals.
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BART’S EXPERT PICKS
Wisconsin (-25.5) vs. Purdue
My first pick of the week is for Wisconsin to get back on track in a big way at home against Purdue. Wisconsin is coming off two rough road losses against Michigan State and Ohio State. The Badgers’ recent struggles doesn’t change the fact that they have a top ranked offense that is 10th in total yards and a defense ranked 9th in points allowed. Purdue has struggled all year and has lost every road game this season. Wisconsin should have more than enough motivation, fueled by two bad losses and a home crowd, to win by at least 25.5 points.
Texas Tech at Texas (OVER 61.5)
My second pick is over in the Texas Tech at Texas game. The over pick receives four stars, is an AccuScore college football betting trend, and has a probability of 58.6 percent. Texas Tech is coming off a very disappointing, big loss to Iowa State. The defense was absolutely dismantled, which is a good sign for the Texas offense. Texas doesn’t have a top ten offense, but it has a solid running game, ranked 17th in the nation. The Red Raiders have struggled defending the run all year, giving up 225.8 yards per game. Texas Tech, despite the poor performance last week, have a potent offense with the fifth best passing attack led by quarterback Seth Doege. AccuScore predicts the final combined score to be around 66 points, which gives a nice cushion.
Oregon at Washington (UNDER 74)
My last pick is under, as 74 points seems too high in this matchup. Both teams enter the game with high scoring offenses. Oregon and Washington average 47.5 and 35.6 points respectively. I think the deciding factor for this pick will be Oregon’s defense. The Ducks aren’t a great defensive team, but limit their opponents to 21.2 points per game and haven’t given up over 30 points in over a month. I definitely expect this game to be high scoring, but 74 points is too much. This pick receives three stars, is a hot trend, and has an AccuScore probability of 61.4 percent.
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