Written by Rohit Ghosh

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Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Toledo vs. Utah State

The Utah State Aggies (10-2) and Toledo Rockets (9-3) look to finish the season on the right note this weekend as they get set to face off in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on Saturday in Boise. We got a MAC-WAC match-up, and both teams are hoping their high-powered offenses will be firing on all cylinders. Utah State is searching for its first postseason win in 19 years while Toledo is looking for its first 10-win season in over a decade. This is the first ever meeting between the teams.

The Aggies are 66.4 percent favorites over the Rockets with an average score of 35-28. Toledo, however, is the much safer bet when looking at the spread. Utah State covers the -10 spread just 43 percent of the time. These two teams like to score and score often; there is a 58 percent chance the total goes over the posted line of 58.5 points.



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This is the second bowl appearance in a row for Utah State, and eighth overall. The Aggies lost to Ohio 24-23 last year in this same bowl. Coming off the most successful regular season in school history, Utah State fans are hoping this year ends with a win. Utah State stormed through the WAC this year, going an impressive 6-0 in conference play. They got an early season rivalry win over Utah, but lost later on to Wisconsin and BYU. After that BYU loss in early October however, the Aggies won six in a row including a season-defining win at ranked Louisiana Tech.

Utah State’s potent offense is led by sophomore quarterback Chuckie Keeton who has thrown for 27 touchdowns and 9 interceptions on a 68 percent completion rate. He is also the second leading rusher for the Aggies behind running back Kerwynn Williams who has 1,277 yards with 12 touchdowns on 200 carries. Williams is also a threat to catch passes with 43 receptions for 663 yards and another 5 scores. Keeton has 120 carries for 527 yards and 7 TDs. Running back Joe Hill has 243 rushing yards along with 10 catches for another 183 yards and 8 total touchdowns. Receiver Matt Austin has 42 catches, 652 yards and 5 touchdowns. Utah State averaged 461 yards of offense this season (267.8 passing yards and 192.8 rushing yards), and allowed just 323 yards defensively, holding eight of their opponents to 17 points or less.

Keeton is projected to throw for 225 yards, 2 TDs with a passer rating of 163.5. Williams is projected to carry it 15 times for 96 yards and a TD. He’s also projected to receive it three times for 37 yards. Austin is projected to get 42 yards on 3 catches. The defense is projected to get nearly two sacks, and has a high probability of forcing either a fumble or an interception. Utah State’s defense is top 15 nationally in total defense, against the rush, and in points allowed. The unit has yet to allow a TD in the first quarter.

Toledo’s season began with the hope that they would contend in the MAC’s West Division. Unfortunately, two late losses put them at 6-2 and tied for second place. The Rockets ended their regular season with a 35-23 win over Akron. All that matters now is that a win which would give the program its first double-digit victory season since 2001.

The Rockets are averaging 456.1 yards per game on offense (258.9 passing yards and 197.2 rushing yards). On defense they are allowing 463.2 yards per game (295.2 passing yards and 168.1 rushing yards).

The offense is led by quarterback Terrance Owens who has thrown for 2,677 yards (62.8 percent completion rate) with 14 TDS and 8 INTS. He also has 91 carries for 385 yards and 5 TDs. He is currently listed as probable for the game. Running back David Fluellen has 252 carries, 1,460 yards and 13 TDS, along with 32 catches for 246 yards. Receiver Bernard Reedy has 82 catches, 1,051 yards and 6 touchdowns. Reedy has also returned two kickoffs and a punt for scores totaling nearly 2,000 all-purpose yards for the season.

Owens is projected to throw for 220 yards and 2 TDs with a passer rating of 129.1. Fluellen is projected to rush 22 times for 115 yards. Reedy is projected to catch it five to six times for 67 yards. Toledo’s defense has a lower probability to get multiple sacks compared to Utah State’s defense, but an equal chance at forcing a turnover.

Via ESPN.com, Toledo has given up an average of 30.4 points over their last seven games. That’s just not going to get it done, especially when they’re not only facing a strong offense, but also a nationally ranked defense. I would like Toledo’s chances more if Owens and Fluellen are fully healthy. Giving Toledo 10 points though is a bit much. Aggies take it 31-24.

The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl is Saturday afternoon (4:30 pm ET, ESPN).