Written by Colin Kennedy
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AccuScore’s computer has expert picks against the spread and on totals on the Sugar Bowl, Rose Bowl, and the National Championship. See all of the computer’s award winning picks on the College Football Bowl Picks Page
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs Louisville
The day following New Year’s will feature a lone bowl game, the Sugar Bowl featuring Louisville vs. Florida. Cardinal head coach Charlie Strong makes his BCS game debut against the Gators, the team with which he won two National Championships under then head coach Urban Meyer. Current Florida head coach Will Muschamp has quickly revitalized the program with the nation’s elite defensive squad.
The key to this game will be Louisville’s run defense and their ability to contain Florida running back Mike Gillislee who has rushed for over 1,100 yards this season. A simplistic run-first game plan propelled the Gators to become one of the SEC’s best rush attacks. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has led the Cardinals to an average of 31 points a game. Despite injuries including a broken wrist and sore ankle, he led Louisville to the Big East championship. However, due to the speed & strength of this Gator defense, Florida in my opinion, will be able to contain their bowl foes and win convincingly.
AccuScore data shows Florida as the overwhelmingly favorite winning over 79 percent of simulations. The Gators win by double digits at least 56% of the time, winning on an average score of 31 to 19, effectively shutting down Bridgewater and maintaining a heavy dosage of rushing yards. Gillislee is projected to rush for 99 yards and has a 60% chance of scoring a touchdown on the ground. If the Cardinals have any chance of winning, Bridgewater must perform; he averaged 1.5 TDs against 0.8 interceptions in the simulated Louisville victories. Louisville does maintain a decent chance at covering the 14 point spread at 53.6%. The teams have a 60% chance of topping the 45.5 point over/under.
The Louisville defense is fortunate they won’t have to be concerned with a diverse Florida passing attack. Unlike their reputation of “Fun-n-Gun” under Steve Spurrier or the spread offense under Meyer, current quarterback Jeff Driskel isn’t a vertical passing threat. His role on offense is to protect the ball; he’s rarely asked to make plays. For the season, Driskel has just 1471 passing yards and 11 touchdowns, but also just 3 interceptions. Florida ranked just 118th in passing offense nationally, but finished 35th in rushing yards. Driskel does project to do well in this game. In simulations he averaged 183 passing yards and 1.5 touchdowns.
Florida’s defense is the true strength of the team. The Gator’s D only allowed 20 or more points on 3 occasions, all victories. In their lone loss, their offense failed to capitalize as they fell at home to Georgia 17-9. Their defensive line is beastly; defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd could be a first round pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. End Dominique Easely and buck linebacker Lerentee McCray have routinely established pressure on opposing quarterbacks causing havoc to allow their secondary to make plays. Despite the continual overhaul due to losing key players early to the draft, Florida’s secondary has been sensational this season. Safety Matt Elam earned All-American honors while the team totaled nineteen interceptions throughout the season. The simulations conservatively showed Florida averaging 1.7 sacks and 1.7 turnovers.
The saving grace for this Cardinals team must be the sophomore Bridgewater. In only his second year of college ball, he was able to establish him among the elite, young players at his position after posting almost 3500 yards passing and a fantastic 25:7 touchdown to interception ratio. Despite his injuries, Bridgewater led his team through adversity to a BCS berth, completing 71.4% of his passes for 263 yards and two touchdowns against Rutgers. Bridgewater must find similar success against a much tougher opponent. He is projected for less than 200 yards passing and a 1:1 touchdown to interception ratio. Running back Jeremy Wright hopes to help the Louisville cause. In simulations Wright finished with almost 120 total yards and close to one touchdown.
Similar to Florida, the strength of the Cardinals also lies in their defense. Strong has cultivated a strong unit with a knack for causing turnovers. The defense created 21 turnovers, and as a team they finished +9 in turnover margin. Simulations showed the defense averaging just over two sacks while creating almost 1.5 turnovers. If their unit appears on the field the majority of the game, expect inflation in these statistics.
This game appears to be fairly one sided, and it shows in the simulation data. Florida won 79% of the simulated match-ups by an average score of 31 to 19. The Gator run offense will prove to be too difficult for the Cardinals defense to maintain. I expect Florida to control the game clock and allow few possessions to Bridgewater, limiting Louisville’s potential to keep the game close. I’m not expecting a blowout, but I think Muschamp will get his first BCS bowl victory by the score of 31-17, letting the Florida faithful rejoice once again at football glory.
