Written by Rohit Ghosh
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AccuScore’s has the best sports simulation computer in the sports prediction industry. The computer has picks against the spread, on totals, and on the money line for every Bowl game, including the SDSU vs BYU matchip. See all of AccuScore’s NCAA Football Bowl Picks page.
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Poinsettia Bowl Preview – SDSU vs BYU
This year’s Poinsettia Bowl features a great match-up between the BYU Cougars (7-5) and San Diego State Aztecs (9-3). Until recent realignment, these two teams were quite familiar with one another due to a Mountain West conference rivalry. Now BYU is independent, and SDSU is headed for the Big East (for now). Don’t let the records fool you; these two teams are evenly matched and Thursday’s bowl game could be one that goes down to the final whistle.
AccuScore has the Cougars as slight 50.5 percent favorites with the average score projected to be 27.3-26.6. BYU is favored by 3.5 points but has just a 42.2 percent chance of covering that spread. There is a 59.5 percent chance that the total goes OVER 58.5 points. Based on AccuScore’s data, the safest bet would be to take SDSU and the points.
After posting an impressive 10-3 record last year, BYU seemed to disappoint more often than not this season. Bronco Mendenhall’s team lost five times, four by six points or fewer. The trend of losing close games has been primarily blamed on inconsistent quarterback play. Riley Nelson has been in and out of the lineup this season due to injuries and has been substantially more erratic than he was last year. In 2011 he threw for 8.5 yards per pass attempt and finished the year with 19 TDs and 7 INTs. This year, Nelson's interceptions went up, and his touchdowns went down. Also, his yards per pass attempt were down and he was sacked more often. This season he threw for 2,011 yards (59.2 percent completion rate) and a passer rating of 120.1. He has thrown for 13 TDs and 12 INTs. AccuScore projects 252 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, and a passer rating of 133.5 for Nelson against the Aztecs. Quarterback James Lark has been receiving snaps in practice, but at this time Nelson is still projected to start.
BYU’s rush attack isn’t anything extra special either. The Cougars get approximately 4.75 yards per carry (which is actually a yard more than SDSU). Running back Jamaal Williams has rushed for 744 yards (4.9 ypc) and 11 TDs this season. He is projected to carry it 13 times for 65 yards and has a high probability of seeing the end-zone. Michael Alisa and Nelson are projected to carry it ten times each as well; Alisa is projected to rush for 43 yards and Nelson, 22. "Wide receiver Cody Hoffman, who caught for 1,134 yards and 11 TDs, is projected to catch it 6 times for 74 yards."
Simply put, BYU’s offensive numbers are not impressive. Their defense, however, is a different story. BYU led the nation in red zone efficiency defense, limiting touchdowns by forcing turnovers and field goals week after week. They are among the nation's leaders in rush defense, total defense and points allowed. The defense is projected to get 2+ sacks, and has a very high probability of forcing 2 turnovers (an interception and a fumble).
The Aztecs, offensively, are much more ground-driven than the Cougars. They are led by quarterback Adam Dingwell and running back Adam Muema. Muema has carried it 211 times this season for 1,355 yards (6.4 ypc) and 16 TDs. His longest run was for 83 yards. Sophomore QB Dingwell has thrown for 795 yards (6.91 ypa) with 8 TDs and 4 INTs.
Muema is projected to carry it 16+ times for 89 yards and a TD. Dingwell is projected to throw for 208 yards, 1-2 TDs, and 1 INT, with a passer rating of 133.8. The other main Aztec back, Walter Kazee, is projected to carry it 12 times for 56 yards. Wide receiver Gavin Escobar is projected to catch it three times for 37 yards.
SDSU’s defense has held five of their last seven opponents under 19 points. After starting the season giving up big plays, the defense improved as the season progressed and ended the regular season very well. BYU coach Mendenhall is familiar with SDSU head coach Rocky Long as Mendenhall was Long’s defensive coordinator when they were both at New Mexico. The SDSU defense is projected to also get 2+ sacks along with forcing two turnovers (an INT and a fumble).
These two teams are familiar with each other and the projection data clearly shows that. Neither team has much of an advantage in any aspect of the game; we should expect a close one throughout. I’ll go with AccuScore and say BYU wins by 3.
