Written by Colin Kennedy
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Outback Bowl: South Carolina vs Michigan
In what will be an interesting defensive battle between the Big 10 and the SEC, the No. 18 Michigan Wolverines meet the No. 10 South Carolina Gamecocks in this season’s Outback Bowl. Both teams began the year ranked in the AP Preseason Top 10, and have maintained respectable seasons even without appearing in their respective conference championship games. Despite a somewhat disappointing 8-4 record, Michigan suffered losses against the current No. 1 (Notre Dame), No. 2 (Alabama), and No. 3 (Ohio State) teams in the country with the fourth loss coming to Nebraska. It is not a stretch to say their current ranking may be a bit low based off their talent level.
The key match-up to watch will be South Carolina’s stud sophomore defensive end Jadeveon Clowney against the Michigan offensive line, which has allowed only 15 sacks on the season. Current Wolverine left tackle Taylor Lewan has been stellar this season and vital to the team’s success; the o-line must protect current starting quarterback Devin Gardner. This year’s Outback Bowl figures to be close, but South Carolina appears to be the favorite due to their defensive advantage.
AccuScore simulations predict a close game with South Carolina winning 28-25 on average. The Gamecocks won nearly 58% of the time, and won by double digits or more 37% of the time. However, given the generous 5.5 spread, Michigan holds a 54.2% chance of covering. The over/under is set at 48 points; AccuScore projects a 58.6% chance the teams will top that scoring threshold.
Injuries have changed the offensive philosophies of both squads as South Carolina has gone from a power-run program to a speed-driven offense since the loss of running back Marcus Lattimore. The Gamecocks have replaced Lattimore with Kenny Miles, who has been productive as a replacement. While Miles is simulated to have just 50 yards rushing, he’s not the key to this South Carolina offense.
While it’s not known which quarterback will start against Michigan, Connor Shaw averaged 230 yards passing and a solid two to one touchdown-interception ratio. However, they have a capable back-up in Dylan Thompson. Thompson had over 300 yards passing and three touchdowns in the ‘Cocks win against rival Clemson. Fortunately for whoever gets the start, they won’t have to face Wolverine starting cornerback JT Floyd who is suspended due to team violations. Receiving wise, South Carolina failed to establish a steady threat this season; no receiver gained over 600 yard this year. The simulations for the Outback Bowl predict no one will top 50 with four receivers sandwiched between 42 and 26 yards.
Michigan defensive coordinator Greg Mattison has turned around the school’s defense, but they were unable to force turnovers this past season. The Wolverines had just seven interceptions but forced 11 fumbles in 2012. Look for young linebackers Kenny Demens and Jake Ryan to lead the team in tackles. It’ll be interesting to see this powerful, big defense go against a faster SEC opponent.
Also in the injury department, Michigan lost their four-year starting quarterback Denard Robinson to an elbow injury. Unlike Lattimore, Robinson has been able to play with his injury and has exclusively focused on playing running back and wide receiver instead of passing. The Michigan offense is the unknown in this game, as they are still adjusting to not having Robinson behind center. Gardner is expected to start, and has thrown for over a thousand yards with eight touchdowns this season. Gardner simulated averages of 190 yards, but had just a 1.2 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio.
Whereas Robinson isn’t expected to factor into the passing game, he did simulate to over 100 yards rushing. However, I don’t expect Robinson to get so many snaps, especially since he won’t be seen as a threat to throw due to the elbow. It’ll be interesting to see if he’ll get snaps at receiver, a position he could potentially play in the pros. The match-up of Clowney against Robinson should have produced multiple highlights; Clowney has been a beast all season, recording 13 sacks and 21.5 tackles for a loss. He’ll be competing against Lewan, who if he were to leave early for the 2013 NFL Draft, projects as a top 15 selection.
The South Carolina defense as a whole combined for twenty eight total turnovers, recording fourteen interceptions and fourteen forced fumbles. While head coach Steve Spurrier may be known for his offense ingenuity, but his defense will be the talk of the game. AccuScore simulations show South Carolina accumulating 1.5 sacks and 1.5 turnovers, but I think that figure will be much higher.
Though the Outback is one of six different bowls to be played on New Year’s Day, it’s arguably the most interesting match-up of any of the games. I’m not sure which Michigan offense we’ll see, but the SEC should be on upset alert. Assuming Shaw starts and plays at a high level, I’m taking South Carolina 31-28 in a closely contested game.
