The Nebraska Cornhuskers
Welcome to the Big Ten…Nebraska gets the hardest Big Ten schedule this year. They miss Illinois, Purdue, and Indiana while getting Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. Well, at least they don’t have to play themselves. Nebraska is the most complete team in the Big Ten and are the undisputed favorite of the Legends Division.

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Nebraska was 9th in rushing and 113th in passing last year, far from balanced yet effective. Sophomore Taylor Martinez returns to improve upon his impressive rookie numbers. He threw for 1631 yards and rushed for 965 with 22 touchdowns total. However, he will need to complete more than 59-percent of passes to become a legitimate dual threat in the Big Ten.

In the second half of the season, Martinez shared snaps in a rotation with Cody Green. With quarterbacks Zac Lee, Cody Green, and possibly Bubba Starling all leaving, there is legitimate concern about the depth behind Martinez. Nebraska is one injury away (see 2010 for reference) from failing to reach expectations. And 1000-yard rushing quarterbacks are not the safest investments.

Though Roy Helu has moved on, Rex Burkhead should complement Martinez with a remarkably consistent rushing attack. He averaged 5.5 yards per carry and his long was only 33 yards. Behind senior Brandon Kinnie, there are not any proven wide outs, though Cotton and Reed return at tight end as options for Martinez. While Nebraska has shown excellent skill in developing the O-line, there are still three gaping holes that need to be filled from a line that gave up 29 sacks in 2010.

As you can see, there are many question marks on offense ranging from the health and depth at QB to the least experienced line in the Big Ten. There is a new offensive coordinator, QB coach, RB coach, WR coach, and OL coach just adding on to the uncertainty on offense. All in all, if Martinez cannot learn to be an effective Big Ten passer, the offense will struggle, as Nebraska is not built, like Air Force or Georgia Tech, to be an effective one-dimensional rushing team. They will have difficulty repeating 31 points/game.

Nebraska has arguably the best defense in the nation. The Blackshirt defense is littered with All-American candidates from Jared Crick to Lavonte David. With seven returning starters, they should dominate the run-oriented offenses in the Big Ten. They have an extremely deep defensive line, and shutdown corner Alfonzo Dennard will mitigate the sting of losing Amukamara.
Nebraska needs to replace the kicker, punter, and returner for 2011. This shows that defense is the only “sure thing” of this very good Nebraska team.

Big Ten Title Hopes
If everything goes right, Nebraska will be favored in every game (except maybe at Wisconsin). But keeping in mind compounding probability, we find it more likely for Nebraska to end up with two or three losses than zero losses. In the Legends Division, there is no single team that can be picked as Nebraska’s toughest foe, but four of the teams are capable of beating the Huskers.

With a strong defense and an uncertain offense and special teams, low scoring games seem to be in store. Close games are variable, so we do not like Nebraska as the heavy chalk at -250 to

win the division. They are the favorite for good reasons but there are many things working against them. I mean, Nebraska can beat all five divisional opponents and still lose the division if they lose to two of Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State. Also, might I remind you how their last game against Washington turned out, so that game is no cupcake either.

The same thing goes for their conference line at +150. Nebraska went 2-2 against top 25 teams last year and lost two more to unranked opponents. With six or seven top 25 games in this conference slate, we can’t expect them to run the table. Assuming the two favorites make the Big Ten Title game, Nebraska would probably get about even odds with Wisconsin, so that bet would almost be as favorable as their futures to win the conference. We do not advise betting on Nebraska in conference.

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BCS Title Chances
If Nebraska can somehow make it through this killer schedule unscathed, then they become national title contenders. At 25 to 1 odds, they are definitely value picks to win the title. While favored in the conference, Nebraska has longer odds than Wisconsin to win the BCS championship. There is plenty of room to hedge your bet if they do make the BCS title game.

Nebraska fits a lot of the qualities you might look for in a future pick. They are getting good price and having plenty of hedge equity, but this is not where you want to spend your money. It is just too much to ask of a Nebraska to win the national title considering they have a recent history of being anemic on offense and face an entirely new set of conference opponents.

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