Written by Rohit Ghosh

Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

AccuScore’s 2016 Bowl Picks…every game: AccuScore is 10-3 in picking Bowl Games on the moneyline in 2016 and 8-3-2 against the spread during Bowl season… Click Here for all of AccuScore's 2016 College Football Bowl Picks

Boise State vs Baylor - Motel 6 Cactus Bowl

What to Watch For

Boise State and their ever-so-efficient offense will looking to lock up an 11-win season Tuesdaynight when they take on the Baylor Bears in the 2016 Cactus Bowl. Reaching the double-digit win mark has become an expectation for the Broncos, having done so eight times in the last ten years.

Boise State's offense averaged 35-plus points per game this season, with RB Jeremy McNichols recording 27 touchdowns, No. 2 in the country. He's projected to finish Tuesday's matchup with 185 yards on 32-plus carries. He averages between two-to-three TDs per sim.

In the same way Boise State relies heavily on McNichols, Baylor will do the same with RB Terence Williams. He averages 183 yards on 31-to-32 carries, averaging 1.7 TDs per sim.

...not a member? Join Now using the code Xmas and get 33% off a premium All-Sports, All Access 1-year month membership! Clearly, we're drunk off eggnog to offer this, so sign up before we sober up and pull this discount off the board: Become an AccuScore member today!

Best Bet(s)

There's quite a bit of value on the money line in this matchup, with simulations forecasting a much more competitive contest than do Vegas odds. Baylor's getting +280 odds on the money line, suggesting about a 26.3 percent chance of winning.

AccuScore simulation data, however, has Baylor's winning percentage at about 43 percent; AccuScore sim data would have Baylor listed at about +130 ML, making the +280 highly attractive.

As you can tell based off the ML value, Baylor covering their +7.5 spread is one of two hot-trend picks in this matchup. Baylor covers the 7.5-point spread in over 58 percent of simulations.

Betting Trends

• The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Baylor's last 12 games. [Goes against AccuScore sim data.]
• Boise State is 1-6 against the spread (ATS) in its last 7 games. [Supports AccuScore sim data.]
• Baylor is 0-5 straight up (SU) in its last five games.

Joomla SEF URLs by Artio