Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Boise State vs Baylor - Motel 6 Cactus Bowl
What to Watch For
Boise State and their ever-so-efficient offense will looking to lock up an 11-win season Tuesdaynight when they take on the Baylor Bears in the 2016 Cactus Bowl. Reaching the double-digit win mark has become an expectation for the Broncos, having done so eight times in the last ten years.
Boise State's offense averaged 35-plus points per game this season, with RB Jeremy McNichols recording 27 touchdowns, No. 2 in the country. He's projected to finish Tuesday's matchup with 185 yards on 32-plus carries. He averages between two-to-three TDs per sim.
In the same way Boise State relies heavily on McNichols, Baylor will do the same with RB Terence Williams. He averages 183 yards on 31-to-32 carries, averaging 1.7 TDs per sim.
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There's quite a bit of value on the money line in this matchup, with simulations forecasting a much more competitive contest than do Vegas odds. Baylor's getting +280 odds on the money line, suggesting about a 26.3 percent chance of winning.
AccuScore simulation data, however, has Baylor's winning percentage at about 43 percent; AccuScore sim data would have Baylor listed at about +130 ML, making the +280 highly attractive.
As you can tell based off the ML value, Baylor covering their +7.5 spread is one of two hot-trend picks in this matchup. Baylor covers the 7.5-point spread in over 58 percent of simulations.
• The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Baylor's last 12 games. [Goes against AccuScore sim data.]
• Boise State is 1-6 against the spread (ATS) in its last 7 games. [Supports AccuScore sim data.]
• Baylor is 0-5 straight up (SU) in its last five games.