The Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State is a bit of an enigma from a statistical perspective. They did well in the one stat that matters, wins, but were unremarkable in almost every other category. Even as Big Ten co-champions, they were not ranked above third in the conference in any major statistical category besides punting and punt returns. On their ESPN profile, their stat line looks above average at best (passing – 46th, rushing – 64th, scoring – 47th, scoring defense – 39th). That is definitely not a Big Ten champion’s line. The same goes for individual players, all of who did not finish better than fourth in the aforementioned categories. So what does this mean? The Spartans did well enough in everything but did not excel in any way. You may remember the overtime trick-play needed to beat an unexceptional Notre Dame, but you may not remember the large deficits at the hands of Purdue and Northwestern. They were killed in their two losses to Iowa and Alabama. They fell to 30th in the final poll. Our conclusion: Michigan State did not deserve to win eleven games and is overvalued for the coming season.

Much like Wisconsin’s Tolzien, Kirk Cousins has had the benefit of productive backs behind him. He has been a captain for multiple seasons leading up to his senior year and is poised for another solid season. Most of the skill players on offense return, so we should expect a repeat of last year’s “above average” offense, right? Well, the gaps in the offensive line will need to be filled, an issue that I don’t see being fixed by this season. Even with Dell gone, B.J. Cunningham and Keshawn Martin should step up to make plays. All in all, the offense should be “above average” in the Big Ten with a lot of downside if the O-line does not produce.

Six starters from last year need to be replaced on D. One of those is All American LB Greg Jones. The loss of tackles for loss leader Colin Neely is a minor inconvenience in what should be an elite defensive line. However, the Spartans currently have four (or more) sophomores as starting linebackers or secondary. For a pass defense that 60th last year, an even worse secondary may be on the horizon. While balance and consistency was Michigan State’s calling card last year, the difference between quality of run defense and pass defense make them a lopsided team that can be beat in the air. I doubt that Sparty will be able to replicate their 2010 defensive form.

Big 10 Title Hopes
As part of the Big Ten scheduling, the Spartans miss Purdue, Illinois, and Penn State in 2011. This and the inclusion of Notre Dame indicate that Michigan State has a harder schedule than that of others in the Legends Division. They have a brutal away schedule at Notre Dame, Ohio State, Nebraska, Iowa, and Northwestern. None of those games are gimmies. With about the same offensive firepower and a young, unproven defense, the Spartans will go back to the usual underperforming ways.

Behind Nebraska and Iowa, Michigan State is a weak pick to win the division at +350 with Denard’s Michigan and Persa’s Northwestern as tough teams as well. I don’t like Sparty at +800 for the conference either. The Spartans at 50 to 1 to win the National Championship is not a good bet when you can get Wisconsin at 20 to 1 or Nebraska at 25 to 1.

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