Written by Max Meyer

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Three Things to Know: Fiesta Bowl

1. Both Teams Have Really Good Dual-Threat Quarterbacks…

Kansas State was expecting big things from Collin Klein for his senior season, and he certainly has not disappointed. While his 890 yards rushing and 22 rushing touchdowns are lower than his totals on the ground last year, he’s improved mightily as a passer. He’s been a more accurate passer going from a 57.3 completion rate last season to 66.2 this year. Klein also has a higher passer rating this season, improving to 156.1 from 125.6. Also, Klein has improved in one big area in regards to his running game, which is his yards per carry average. Klein has carried the ball 123 fewer times this season, but he’s averaging 4.6 yards per attempt. That’s one yard better per carry than last season.

However, Oregon has a dynamic quarterback of its own. Freshman Marcus Mariota has exceeded every expectation set for him. He has thrown for 2,511 yards and 30 touchdowns, and only six interceptions. Mariota’s been extremely accurate with his 69.9 completion rate. He’s also been effective as a read-option quarterback, rushing for 690 yards on seven yards per attempt.

AccuScore sims expect both quarterbacks to have great games. Both are projected to have over 300 total yards, and to have multiple touchdowns as well. Quarterback play by both teams is the biggest key to this game. Both will need to run balanced offenses to make these defenses frustrated.

2. …Along With Outstanding Running Backs

Oregon’s Kenjon Barner is the best running back that this Kansas State defense will face this season. Barner has 1,624 rushing yards on a 6.5 yards per attempt average. He also has a nose for the end zone with 22 total touchdowns. Kansas State can ill-afford to let Barner break lose because in the four games that Barner has over 190 rushing yards, Oregon has averaged over 50 points.

Oregon’s other explosive running back is DeAnthony Thomas. Even though he’s used more often in the passing game, Kansas State has to pay attention to him whenever he’s on the field. However, Thomas had a monster performance on the ground last game against Oregon State, rushing for 122 yards and three touchdowns. He’s also averaging 7.6 yards per carry on the season.

But, don’t forget about Kansas State’s John Hubert. Even though he hasn’t had a 100-yard rushing effort since early October, he’s still always a threat to have a big game. Hubert has 892 rushing yards along with 15 touchdowns, and he’s been a perfect complement to Klein.

AccuScore sims project Barner to have the best game of the three with 126.0 yards rushing and 1.4 touchdowns. They also project Hubert to have 87.3 yards rushing and for Thomas to have 88.6 total yards.

3. Both Teams Have Underrated Defenses

Rankings aren’t everything in college football. Kansas State is ranked 43rd in the nation in total defense while Oregon is ranked 46th. However, with these teams often having big leads, it was their second-string defenses that cost them higher rankings. Also, teams had to pass against these defenses often, which inflated the defenses’ total yardages.

Kansas State has three All-Big 12 defensive linemen, and their defensive line has been instrumental in the defense’s pass-rushing and run stopping capability. The Wildcats best defensive player though is senior All-American linebacker Arthur Brown. He is a hard hitter, and has 91 tackles on the season.

Oregon’s secondary has been the best part of their defense. They had the most interceptions during the college football regular season with 23. The Ducks also had the most pick-sixes in the country with four. Klein rarely throws interceptions, but he could have a difficult time against Oregon’s secondary.

Prediction

Oregon is favored by 9.5 points over Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl. AccuScore sims project Oregon to win the game 60.8 percent of the time while covering the spread at only a 42.4 percent rate. In Kansas State’s lone loss of the season, Baylor’s rushing attack simply demolished the Wildcat defense. Oregon’s run game has potential to do the same exact thing. I just think that the Ducks have too much firepower for Kansas State to handle. However, with two above-average defenses playing, this will not be quite the shootout everyone is expecting.

#5 Oregon 35, Kansas State 27