Written by Jacob Freedman

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The Trojans Can Be Their Own Worst Enemies on Offense

USC has been plagued by turnovers

Matt Barkley’s senior season, a year which he turned down NFL millions to have, has been derailed by freshman-like mistakes from the quarterback. Barkley has 13 interceptions, six more than last year, and has often simply failed to see opposing defenders before he lets the ball go in the air. If not for some slippery fingers from opposing secondaries, Barkley could easily have thrown another five picks. Some of the fault needs to go upon USC’s young and sometimes-inept offensive line, but Barkley looks to be getting less and less accurate with seven interceptions over the past three weeks. UCLA’s pass defense is its weak point, but an interception or two by Barkley could swing momentum in favor of the Bruins.

Fumbles have also killed many a Trojan drive. Many of the USC’s 13 fumbles have come in late-game and red-zone situations often taking easy points off the board. Lead running back Silas Redd is especially prone to this problem, and could have issues as he returns from missing last week’s game with an undisclosed injury. The way the Trojans have put the ball in opponents’ hands this season, UCLA’s defense might have to be more opportunistic than good this weekend, and wait for the Trojans to shoot themselves in the foot.

Expect the yellow flags to be flying

On the note of shooting oneself in the foot, this is a match-up between the two most penalized teams in the nation. UCLA also leads the nation with about 90 penalty yards per contest. USC has cut down on yellow flags in the past two weeks (combined 7 penalties for 55 yards), but still averages 9.0 penalties a game to the Bruins’ 9.2. A personal foul for taunting by safety T.J. McDonald allowed Arizona to continue a game-winning drive in the Wildcats 39-36 over the Trojans that realistically ended USC’s title hopes earlier in the season, and serves as an example of how discipline (or a lack thereof) is critical to success. The same issue is prevalent on the Bruins’ sideline in terms of mental errors. Emotions will be high for this rivalry game, but both teams need to control themselves on the field Saturday or they will be feeling the regret on Sunday and beyond.

UCLA’s offense has a recipe for success against the Trojans

In losses to Arizona and Oregon, USC averaged 43.5 points per game. The issue: defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin’s unit allowed over 1218 yards and 50 points per game, which included letting Oregon average a stunning 8.8 yards per play in USC’s 62-51 loss to the Ducks. Both Arizona and Oregon had spread offenses that featured a dual-threat quarterback combined with a fast and elusive feature running back. That sounds exactly like who the Bruins are on offense.

Redshirt freshman quarterback Brett Hundley is completing 69 percent of his passes with 24 touchdown passes to nine interceptions, and six rushing scores in 2012. Not bad for a quarterback that came to UCLA for the pistol offense, not the new spread offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone has installed. The Trojan secondary struggles to multi-task, meaning it will be up to Hundley to brave the blitz better in order to account for UCLA’s weak offensive line (31 sacks allowed), and find open receivers down the field. Running back Johnathan Franklin is UCLA’s all-time rushing leader and is lethal in the open field. He is nearing 1300 yards rushing on the season, and will use his vision to gash the Trojans for big gains if USC’s run defense can’t close up the type of holes that allowed Oregon running back to run for 321 yards and five touchdowns against them.

Marqise Lee’s surprise Heisman campaign will likely keep rolling

The two squads are pretty even at most positions, but the one distinct advantage the Trojans must capitalize on is the Bruins’ weak secondary. The primary benefactor come Saturday will be Marqise Lee. The sophomore wide receiver has been the best player on the field in almost all of USC’s games this season, and some draft scouts say that he could be a No. 1 wideout in the NFL right now. Lee has the size, speed, and elusiveness that have seen him turn screen passes into 75-yard touchdowns. Lee has almost 1500 yards receiving and 13 touchdowns this season, and will use this chance against the nation’s 105th-ranked passing defense to make another big statement in his late Heisman push.

Prediction: USC 41, UCLA 34

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USC won 50-0 last year, but a lot has changed in a season. The winner takes home the Pac-12 South title, and the right to take a shot at Oregon for a chance at a Rose Bowl berth. The losers assure themselves of a second-tier bowl this winter. Franklin and Hundley will make it a shootout, but the Trojans’ overall talent on offense and playmakers in the back seven will give USC a leg up. USC’s “unfinished business” may have to remain for the next Trojan quarterback to clean up, but Matt Barkley will end his college career without a loss to UCLA by airing the ball out to Lee and Robert Woods and picking apart a hapless Bruins pass defense.