Written by Jacob Freedman

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3 Thoughts on Texas Tech vs Kansas State

Every week, AccuScore’s college football writers preview the biggest NCAA football games of the weekend. This week, our writer previews Texas Tech vs Kansas state and makes a prediction on the final score. To see all of the AccuScore computer's picks on this game and every other game (Against the Spread and on Totals) go to the College Football Picks Page …And if you’re not a member, AccuScore offers a 7 day free trial, so get your picks now!

1. This game will not be a typical Big 12 shootout

Don’t expect an SEC-esque battle of field goals, but also don’t look for a score in the 50-point range despite both squads averaging more than 40 points per game. Part of this is because both defenses are more than competent unlike much of their conference brethren. Kansas State’s defense is first in the Big 12 allowing fewer than 20 points per game, while the Red Raiders are third allowing fewer than 22 points per contest.

Led by defensive captain linebacker Arthur Brown and cornerback Ty Zimmerman (4 INTs), the Kansas State defense has forced 17 turnovers. Texas Tech quarterback Seth Doege had his way with the TCU defense last week (7 total TDs), but is susceptible to turnovers. It doesn’t matter how far Doege leads the Red Raiders down the field if the drive ends up with no points because he turns the ball over.

The Red Raiders’ second-half defense this season has been clutch, allowing just 49 points total in the final two quarters. This could change on Saturday. Collin Klein is far and away more dangerous than any quarterback they have faced so far because he poses a serious threat on the ground. The Red Raiders are among the nation’s best in pass defenses, but they will need better pressure (only 11 sacks in 2012) from the defensive line in order to prevent Klein from simply running all over them in the late stages of the game.

AccuScore projections have Klein rushing for just over 80 yards and nearly two touchdowns. The Red Raiders will be satisfied in limiting Klein to that kind of yardage, but since they don’t force many turnovers (10 total on the season), they will need to clamp down on third downs and make enough plays to ensure too Wildcat drives don’t end up in the end zone.

2. The Heisman battle runs through Manhattan…Kansas?

The Heisman may be awarded in New York City, but each team’s quarterback has a chance to make big waves in the race for college football’s most prestigious award on the Kansas plains this Saturday.

Klein is the favorite at the moment after outshining former frontrunner Geno Smith last week in a 55-14 shellacking of West Virginia. We all knew Klein could run, but in the win he also passed for a career-high 323 yards on just 21 attempts. AccuScore projections have him coming down to earth with under 200 passing yards this week, but unlike many dual-threat quarterbacks, Klein rarely turns the ball over. Klein is scary-good right now, and unless Texas can fix whatever ails its defense before December 1, the Red Raiders are the biggest challenge standing in the way of Kansas State and an undefeated season.

Doege also turned heads last weekend with his seven touchdown tosses in a 56-53, triple-overtime road victory over TCU. We have seen crooked statistics out of Lubbock before, but Doege has also defeated two top-25 squads in a row. If he defeats a third this weekend, the Heisman voters will no choice but to pay attention. AccuScore projections have him throwing for more than 300 yards and two touchdowns. A turnover-free game by Doege is the biggest key to Texas Tech’s offense outclassing Kansas State’s, and would pave Doege’s path to Heisman relevancy.

3. Explosive plays downfield are not key

For all the accolades each offense is receiving, one would presume big plays are a vital part of each squad’s offense. That would be an incorrect assumption. Texas Tech and its glorious passing attack average just one play of over 40 yards per game, while Kansas State averages even fewer.

Each team focuses heavily on ball control to keep their opponents off the field. Both are in the Top 6 nationally in third down conversion rate. Doege slices and dices passes across the middle to sustain long drives for the Red Raiders, while Wildcats running back John Hubert and Klein run the ball on the edges until their opponents can no longer keep up.

This game will not featured inflated point totals, as our AccuScore projections have both teams scoring under 40 points. Long drives that eat up the clock and keep the opposing offense off the field will be the norm. It’s very possible that the team with the last possession could be the team in control to win the game on a last-minute score.

Prediction

An undefeated Kansas State team is only favored by a touchdown at home, which shows respect for Texas Tech despite their deficiencies. The AccuScore projection has the teams covering the 60.5-point over/under as does my own personal projection. These squads are both dominant yet one-dimensional on offense. Fortunately for Kansas State, Klein’s passing abilities outweigh the capabilities of an inconsistent Red Raider rushing attack. It will be an uneasy day for Kansas State, but Klein will prevail keeping the Wildcats’ national title hopes and his Heisman campaign alive.

Kansas State 35, Texas Tech 31