Written by Jacob Freedman
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Three Things To Know: Stanford vs Oregon State
1. Kevin Hogan is the big unknown
It is no surprise that Stanford misses Andrew. The Cardinal coaches benched freshman quarterback Josh Nunes after two unimpressive series last week and put in Hogan who had only thrown just one pass in his college career before the game. Hogan proceeded to complete 75 percent of his passes and tossed for two touchdowns to lead the Cardinal to a 48-0 victory over Colorado.
Not to discredit Hogan, but any statistics put up against the supremely terrible Buffaloes defense have to be taken with a grain of salt. Additionally, the Beavers’ defense has had all week to game plan for the new Cardinal starting quarterback. Hogan’s strengths are his accuracy and ability to make plays outside of the pocket, but Saturday will be his first real test on the NCAA stage. Saturday will simultaneously be the redshirt freshman’s first start and likely biggest game of his career. AccuScore projections have Hogan throwing for just over 200 yards and at least one touchdown. Oregon State has the nation’s fifth-best rushing defense so Stanford hopes Hogan can pull a ‘Luck’ and carry this team to victory.
2. The Beavers need to find success through the air
There is not much left to say about Stanford’s NCAA best rush defense. Allowing just over 55 yards per game and less than two yards per carry, the Cardinal should make consistent ball movement difficult for Storm Woods and the rest of the Beavers. This is why quarterback Cody Vaz - who filled in, then stole the starting job from Sean Mannion- needs to be more consistent. Vaz completed just one pass in the first quarter of last week’s 36-26 win over Arizona State. While that pass was a 50-yard touchdown toss to Markus Wheaton, he’ll need to improve upon his 42.4 completion percentage.
Big plays are nice and have been a big reason of why Vaz has settled into the starting job. They are not what the Beavers need this Saturday however. Instead, Oregon State coach Mike Riley is looking for a reliable passing attack and for Vaz to engineer longer drives in what will likely be a defensive battle. Vaz has Markus Wheaton and Brandin Cooks to throw to, both of whose straight-line and horizontal speed will be the biggest challenge for Stanford’s defense. The duo is averaging 211.6 combined receiving yards per game this season, though AccuScore Projections project the pair for just under 130 yards. Vaz will face more pressure than he has all year against a vicious Stanford pass rush, but needs to find receivers across the field on a consistent basis in order for the Beavers to pull off the road victory.
3. The winner gets to control their own Rose Bowl destiny
Both teams face No. 2 Oregon before the end of the season. Defeating the Ducks will be a monumental task for both sides, but losing this Saturday eliminates any dreams of Pasadena. If either side can win the rest of their regular season Pac-12 contests, they would have the enviable scenario of home-field advantage in the conference title gamewith a Rose Bowl bid on the line.
The Cardinal have been in the Fiesta and the Orange Bowl the last two seasons, and one can bet star running back Stephen Taylor (291 rushing YDs, 2 TDs in those games) and the rest of the squad wouldn’t mind a BCS three-peat. Oregon State was picked near the bottom of the Pac-12 before the season, and Saturday is another chance to build on an already successful campaign.
Prediction: Stanford 23, Oregon State 17
I can’t recall a Top-15 matchup this late in the season with such uncertainty at the quarterback spot for both sides. Hogan is the real wild card, but Taylor will do his best to chomp through the Beavers’ defensive line while linebackers Shayne Skov and Chase Thomas will lead a Stanford front seven that will rattle Vaz into making pressure-induced mistakes. The Cardinal are difficult to knock off at home, and the Beavers’ won’t have enough offensive firepower at the end of the day to pull off the slight upset.
