Written by Colin Kennedy

Follow @Metta_Colin on Twitter

Thoughts on Oregon Ducks vs California Bears

AccuScore’s college football writers preview the biggest NCAA football games ahead of every week. This weekend, our writer previews Oregon vs California. AccuScore’s computer has picks on this game and every other game (Against the Spread and on Totals). These expert predictions can be viewed on the College Football Picks Page …And if you’re not a member, AccuScore offers a 7 day free trial, (click join now at the top right) and get your picks today!

This weekend the Oregon Ducks go on the road as heavy favorites against sputtering Cal. The Bears are 28 point dogs, and would be longshots even if healthy. They are not close to full strength however with quarterback Zach Maynard and receiver Keenan Allen both out with injuries. The season began with promise with return to the renovated Memorial Stadium, but has turned into a nightmare as Cal will finish with another losing campaign. Oregon does have games against Oregon State and Stanford remaining so there is some trap game potential in this one.

The Chip Kelly led Ducks enter Saturday’s game as the highest scoring offense, and fourth in total offense in the NCAA. Averaging over 54 points a game, the high-octane Duck offense easily dwarfs Cal’s (24.5), while they have almost a 160 total yard advantage on average as well. The spread is -28 for Oregon, and simulations have them covering about 55 percent of the time. I don’t doubt this will happen especially if Chip Kelly continues to blowout his lesser opponents for style points. Cal wins just 7 percent of the time in sims. AccuScore predicts a 51-19 victory for the Ducks at Memorial Stadium.

Quarterback Marcus Mariota has surpassed the high expectations set for him having passed for more than 1700 yards, and run for 474 more with 25 total touchdowns. Mariota is coming off a fantastic victory over USC when he threw four TDs en route to a 62-point performance. AccuScore projects over 200 passing yards and three total touchdowns. His counterpart, Cal quarterback Allen Bridgford, is making his first real college start (he started the season opener due to a one-quarter suspension for Maynard). Although he was a highly regarded recruit, Bridgford has looked shaky and incompetent in his brief action. Those expecting a revival of Aaron Rodgers will be disappointed. Expect Bridgford to struggle, perhaps even worse than his 177 passing yards and 0.6 TD/1.3 INT forecast.

While the Ducks are terrific passing the ball, the key to their offense is their rushing attack. They are second in the country in rushing averaging a ridiculous 341 yards powered by Heisman hopeful Kenjon Barner (1295 rushing yards, 7.2 ypc). In AccuScore simulations, Barner led the way with 127 yards rushing and 2 TDs, while fellow running back DeAnthony Thomas added almost 80 yards of offense and a touchdown of his own. These could also be on the low end as this Cal defense just allowed over 200 yards rushing to Washington last week. Unfortunately for Cal fans, there’s not much this defense can do about the Duck rush attack; they are going to get yardage.

While these programs have drifted in opposite directions the last few years, one has to wonder if Cal will attempt to play Oregon as they did in 2010. In the close 15-13 Oregon victory (Oregon’s closest game until losing in the BCS Championship game against Auburn), the Bears defense slowed down the tempo while their offense milked the clock. This philosophy slowed the vaunted Oregon offense forcing Oregon to stage a fourth quarter scoring drive to win. If they wish to keep it close, they will have to rely on their trio of backs to run between the tackles and shorten the game.

In recent years, Cal has produced multiple, successful runningbacks at both the college and professional level. Whether it was J.J. Arrington, Marshawn Lynch, Justin Forsett, Jahvid Best or Shane Vereen, running backs coach Ron Gould has produced a steady flow of dependable 1,000 yard rushers. While a single player from this year’s squad might not crack that milestone, C.J. Anderson, Isi Sofele, and Brandon Bigelow have proven to be successful while sharing the load. With two games remaining, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this unit total 1,900 yards split among the three of them (they currently sit around 1,600 yards combined). All three backs are projected to collect 50 yards rushing each with Sofele pacing the group with 65 yards.

Overall, I don’t expect much of a battle between these two schools. The point spread could make the game interesting from that perspective, but I don’t see Cal being able to give much of a fight. The Oregon defense has the ability to cause turnovers; the 2.2 predicted by AccuScore seems to be too low, it could easily be double that. This should be a mere speed bump in Oregon’s long schedule, they shouldn’t need to deviate from their usual schedule. I predict the Ducks will beat the spread depending on Kelly’s mood and desire to impress BCS voters.