Written by Max Meyer

Follow @trojanmax12 on Twitter

Sign up for a monthly membership and get a Free 7-day trial that includes picks for every Division 1 college football game against the spread and on totals. Each pick is rated on an award-winning star system: Try AccuScore for Free!

Three Things: Oregon vs USC

1. USC’s defensive holds the key to the game

Coming into the season, USC’s defensive line was one of their biggest question marks. The Trojan pass rush has exceeded expectations so far this season, as they are ranked 8th in the nations in sacks with 27. However, in their two losses, they didn’t record a single sack.

The penetration from the defensive line is important because USC will need to pressure Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota to force bad decisions from the freshman. USC’s two best defensive linemen this season have been junior college transfer Morgan Breslin and freshman Leonard Williams. Breslin has made a huge impact in several games, and he’s accumulated seven sacks on the season. While Williams has committed some dumb penalties the past few weeks, he’s made major strides as both a run-stopper and pass-rusher.

AccuScore projects USC to only have 1.3 sacks against Oregon. USC will need to have a sack total of at least four, which is the average number of sacks in their wins this season.

2. Can Marqise Lee Be Stopped?

USC’s prolific sophomore wide receiver has simply been unstoppable this season. Last week against Arizona, Lee had the game of his career catching 16 balls for 345 yards setting Pac-12 records in the process. Lee is currently second in the nation in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns, and has taken over the Heisman discussion from teammate Matt Barkley.

Oregon hasn’t forgotten what Lee did in last year’s game. Lee torched Oregon’s secondary with eight catches for 187 yards. But, Oregon’s defensive backs have improved this season as well. The Ducks rank 45th in the nation in pass defense allowing close to 214 yards per game, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Their average pass defense is mostly due to the fact that teams have to throw because Oregon has been getting big leads early on in the first half of games. Teams also get more possessions against Oregon simply because of how often the Ducks score.

Oregon’s top two cornerbacks are Terrance Mitchell and Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, and they will attempt to contain Lee and his partner Robert Woods. The cornerbacks have to make sure that they don’t allow too many big plays by these two receivers like a year ago.

Lee is not expected to come close to last week’s production based on the projections from AccuScore. He is forecasted for eight catches and 97 yards, a solid but not record-setting day. USC probably needs a much bigger game from Lee if it is to have any chance against Oregon.

3. Oregon has a big-time weapon of its own…

And his name is De’Anthony Thomas. USC coach Lane Kiffin said that Thomas and Lee make a similar impact in games. Thomas has world-class speed, and he makes the most of his limited carries out of the backfield. Even though Oregon running back Kenjon Barner is considered the starter, Thomas can influence the game in more ways. Thomas is Oregon’s biggest receiving threat, and he’s also a lethal return man on special teams.

Thomas had a big game last year versus the Trojans even though he was held to only five rushing yards. He had a receiving touchdown along with a kick return touchdown, and he forced the Trojans to focus a lot of their attention on him whenever he entered the game.

The biggest difference in Thomas’s game this year has been his confidence. He’s been a much better runner, and he hasn’t fumbled the ball nearly as often as last season. AccuScore sims project almost 47 rushing yards on six carries along with 37 receiving yards for Thomas. Expect Thomas to have an even bigger game though because the Ducks will want to utilize him as much as possible against a struggling Trojans defense. The ability to free up some of the other Ducks’ weapons will ride on Thomas’s performance in this game.

Prediction

Oregon is favored by 8.5 points, and AccuScore sims project Oregon to win this game 68.8 percent of the time, while covering the spread at a 51.9 percent clip. However, I just don’t see USC being able to keep up with Oregon’s firepower. In fact, Oregon averages more points in the first half of their games (36.3) than USC does in the four quarters (35). USC is the most penalized team in the nation, and they are also one of the worst teams in giving the ball away on offense. USC has to play a perfect game to have a shot at beating Oregon, but they are just too sloppy to compete with the Ducks. Expect a high scoring game, but for Oregon to prevail easily.

#2 Oregon 52, #17 USC 35

AccuScore’s NCAAF Analyst Jon Lee is 7-3 in his picks the past 3 weeks and he’s got a pick against the spread on this game. See Jon Lee’s Top 4 College Football Picks – Week 10