Written by Jacob Freedman

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4 Thoughts: LSU versus Alabama

AccuScore’s college football writers preview the biggest NCAA football games ahead of every week. This weekend, our writer previews LSU vs Alabama and makes a prediction on the final score. AccuScore’s computer picks on this game and every other game (Against the Spread and on Totals) can be viewed on the College Football Picks Page …And if you’re not a member, AccuScore offers a 7 day free trial, so get your picks today!

1. It’s all about conversions for Alabama

Alabama’s defense is the best in the nation because they make every opponent work harder for their points than any other team. Crimson Tide opponents convert just over 25 percent of their third down plays. Alabama only allows opponents to score just 54 percent of the time on red zone trips, the best mark in the nation. This trend doesn’t apply to its own offense as the Tide has scored on 97 percent of their red zone trips, also best in the nation, while converting 45 percent of the time on third down.

LSU’s rushing defense allows 4.2 yards per carry on third down compared to 2.44 yards per rush on first and second downs, which means Tide running backs T.J. Yeldon and Eddie Lacy will be relied on to keep moving the chains.

It’s a simple formula for the Crimson Tide. Don’t allow opponents to make long drives or stop them when they do, then make sure no trip deep into enemy territory goes to waste.

2. The running game needs to carry LSU…or else.

Never have I been so worried that a top-five squad might get shut out. AccuScore projects LSU quarterback Zach Mettenberger to have just a 28 percent chance of throwing a touchdown, a prediction not helped by the Tigers’ lack of receiving experience and elite talent outside of Odell Beckham Jr. The Crimson Tide has allowed just three touchdowns through the air all year, and Mettenberger should not reasonably be expected to buck that trend.

The Tigers average over 200 yards per game on the ground, but now run into the nation’s top rush defense. Alabama has limited its opponents to fewer than 60 yards per game on the ground, and is the nation’s only team allowing less than two yards per carry.

The Tigers have five rushers with over 250 yards on the ground this year, but freshman sensation Jeremy Hill has become as close to a feature back as the Tigers’ balanced run scheme allows. Hill has rushed for 251 yards and three touchdowns over the past two games, and at a clip over seven yards per carry. After 13 carries in the season’s first six games, Hill has 35 attempts on the ground in the past two. AccuScore forecasts have Hill rushing for 52 yards, which is not shabby considering the most yards the Crimson Tide have allowed to a single rusher all season has been 59 (Arkansas’s Knile Davis on 20 carries).

The Tigers have depth with Alfred Blue and Spencer Ware also expected to contribute. I expect the likely candidate to be Hill, but someone in the running game has to find holes and break tackles against Alabama’s mammoth defensive line in order for the Tigers to stand a chance.

3. LSU has big-time playmakers

LSU lost cornerbacks Morris Claiborne (NFL draft) and Tyrann Mathieu (personal issues) from last season’s squad, but still have elite talent where it matters most: the defensive line. Alabama’s offensive line has been surprisingly average in pass protection allowing more than two sacks per game against a slate of weak pass-rushing squads. Barkevious Mingo and Sam Montgomery will hear their names called early on in the NFL Draft next April, but for now both defensive ends will give AJ McCarron more of a scare than anything on Halloween. Their statistics aren’t impressive, but that’s mainly because one or the other is double-teamed on every play. The ferocious duo will find ways to swarm into the backfield, and McCarron will need to throw well under pressure or the Crimson Tide’s offensive balance could be jeopardized.

The Tigers benefit from this pass rush as their pass defense ranks fourth in the nation allowing fewer than 150 yards per game. The secondary is led by safety Eric Reid who ripped the ball out of the hands of Alabama’s Marquis Maze at the LSU goal line for a game-saving interception in LSU’s 9-6 win over the Crimson Tide last November. Reid can be inconsistent however, and his over-aggressiveness is part of why LSU has the second-most penalties per game (8.5) in the country this year, but he has the ability to make the big-time plays LSU will need Saturday. McCarron has yet to throw an interception all season, but don’t doubt for a second that Reid’s biggest goal for Saturday (besides winning) is changing that statistic.

4. It’s about who you play

From a glance, Alabama is by far the more dominant team. A deeper look at the Tide’s schedule however, makes their performances a little bit less impressive. Alabama can only play whoever is on their schedule, but only one of their wins is over a ranked team. Their 41-14 clobbering of Michigan has lost its luster as has the shellacking of Arkansas. The ranked team that the Tide does have a win over (No. 15 Mississippi State) had played three teams with a combined 0-18 SEC record and a smattering of Sun Belt squads before being trounced by the Tide last week.

LSU is the much more battle-tested squad. The Tigers were humbled 14-6 at Florida three weeks ago, but have responded with wins over then-No. 3 South Carolina and a road takedown of SEC newcomer Texas A&M. The Tigers do not blow out opponents like the Tide (Alabama’s average margin of victory is 32.5 points), but we have yet to see this year’s Alabama have to pull out a win in the second half or make a fourth-quarter drive like the Tigers did in consecutive weeks earlier this month.

Alabama has the talent advantage on both sides of the ball, but if performance against top teams is any indicator, then the Tigers will give Alabama (by far) the toughest game the Crimson Tide have played all year.

Prediction: LSU 21, Alabama 17

LSU is at home and feeling good, especially after a bye week following two top-25 victories. Alabama is the better team, but the Tigers are hot. Last year’s 9-6 “Game of the Century” victory by LSU in Tuscaloosa showed that anything can (and will) happen in the SEC. LSU’s defense is second only to Alabama’s, and LSU coach Les Miles’ will be sure to have a few trick plays up his sleeve in order to create unexpected sources of offense. The Crimson Tide haven’t faced any adversity yet, so I’m going with the upset pick in the surging Tigers and daring Alabama to prove me wrong.