The Arkansas Razorbacks
This could be Arkansas’s year because they are loaded. Nothing could be better for a Bobby Petrino coached team than returning your entire receiving core and a solid quarterback option.

The preseason is all about variables. Ryan Mallett is gone to the NFL and this could actually be seen as good news. Mallett was an underachiever with poor work ethic who got worse as the game went on. In his place will be Tyler Wilson who showed he could play when he lit up the Auburn for 332 yards and 4 touchdowns. Additionally, nothing helps the transition from back up to starter an experienced receiving corps.

The big question for the Razorbacks will be at running back.  They seemed to be all set as Knile Davis is probably the best running back you've never heard of. Last year as a sophomore, Davis rushed for 1,334 yards and a gaudy 6.5 yards per carry.  He has been lost for the season due to injury though, and will need to replaced.  Juniors Ronnie Wingo and Dennis Johnson will have to step in and step up and fill that void.  The upside is that Davis himself barely played before his huge breakout last year so there's still the chance Wingo and Johnson can be just fine in a Petrino offense.

Defensively, Arkansas returns eight starters from a consistent defense whose only bad performance was against Auburn. If Arkansas wants to content in the SEC, they will have to continue to make big stops as they did when they won seven of their last eight regular season games.

SEC Title Hopes
I am going to hedge and say I am not ready to pick Arkansas to win the SEC, but they are the best overall bet to win the SEC West. At +500, I feel like this is a gift considering who they have coming back on offense and eight returning starters on defense.

You can’t talk about one team in the SEC without mentioning all the other teams in the conference. With no game against Florida, Arkansas’s schedule is as favorable as you can get for an SEC team. The Hogs get division rival Auburn, South Carolina, Mississippi State and Tennessee at home, with tough road games at Ole Miss, Alabama and LSU.

The reason I like Arkansas to win the SEC West at +500 is Alabama is overrated. Nevertheless, our pre-season projections do make Alabama a slight favorite, but it should be noted that our simulations would favor Arkansas at home or on a neutral site. A loss to Alabama probably would not eliminate them from the SEC race and the game vs. LSU will still have SEC West implications.

Worth a BCS Future?
While I have no issue getting down on Arkansas to win the SEC West, I will not be spending on them to win the BCS Title. Based on the laws of compounding probability road games at Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M translates into Arkansas more likely to finish with two losses than zero. I just don’t like those odds.

In the era of the BCS, it is very hard for a program without national cache to break through and play for the Crystal Ball. Sure Arkansas is from the SEC, but as an old defector from SWC, they do not carry the same brand recognition as the long-standing teams from the nation’s strongest conference. Even at +3000, it just doesn’t set up well for the Hogs.