Written by Jon Lee
Follow @thejonlee on Twitter
College Football Picks: 13-5 past 5 weeks…3 New Picks
Analyst was 2-1 last week and has been incredibly accurate the last month and a half.
Free Pick of the week
Duke +6.5 vs. Miami
The Blue Devils win this game outright in 46 percent of simulations, and cover 61 percent of the time. Miami will likely have a motivation issue after the school decided to self-impose another bowl game on Monday. This is after the Canes got a big win last week, and thought a win in this game would get them to the ACC title game. Now all of that has been taken away and this game is essentially meaningless. Duke on the other hand is playing for bowl positioning, and a .500 conference record, not insignificant things for the Blue Devils. On the field, Miami is very poor defensively against the pass on the road allowing a 160 QB rating and 276 yards on average. Conversely, Duke has averaged a 151 QB rating at home while throwing 18 touchdowns compared to just 3 interceptions.
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Mississippi State +1 at Ole Miss
The Bulldogs win outright 56 percent of the time in simulations, and by 10 or more points a third of the time. They win by a field goal on average. This season we’ve learned that Mississippi State is a good team that can’t compete against elite teams. They lost three straight to Alabama, Texas A&M, and LSU, all top 10 teams. In their other eight games they have won by an average score of 37.8 to 14.4. Ole Miss has played good teams close, but has lost all of those games. Rebel quarterback Bo Wallace has put up yardage including over 300 against LSU last week, but he has 14 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Mississippi State is the best in the SEC with a +16 turnover margin. Advantage: Bulldogs.
Troy +3 at Middle Tennessee State
This week’s computer pick is Troy at MTSU. The Trojans are getting a field goal, but are winning outright 52 percent of the time in simulations, and covering 57 percent of the time. This is a nice value pick, and Troy is actually 3-2 on the road this season. The computer has gone a combined 15-3 picking games ATS involving either of these two teams.
