Written by Collin Kennedy
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The 19th edition of the Alamo Bowl features an intriguing matchup between the Big 12 and the Pac 12, as the Texas Longhorns (8-4) look to topple the Oregon State Beavers (9-3) in San Antonio. Texas has underachieved this season despite being one of the most talented teams in college football, looking unimpressive throughout 2012. Meanwhile, their opponents have been one of the biggest surprises in the Pac-12, especially after starting 6-0 en route to a 9-3 overall record. In what is expected to be a competitive bowl game, the Beavers are slightly favored by bettors. The Longhorn defense features multiple future NFL players, but the key to this game will be their ability to limit the Beaver running game, especially Storm Williams.
At the moment, the spread is Texas +2 and the over/under line is 57 points. AccuScore predicts a close game with just a point separating these two squads in simulations. Oregon State wins 52 percent of the time by an average score of 30.7 to 29.7.
The key to winning games is often the turnover margin, and the Alamo Bowl should be no different. Oregon State committed fewer turnovers in 57 percent of simulations winning 61 pecent of those simulations. Correspondingly, Texas won 66 percent of the simulations in which quarterback David Ash and crew won this stat.
Texas beat only one ranked team, Texas Tech on November 3, this season. While they won four of their last six games, their defense looked uncharacteristically soft in close wins on the road against Kansas (1-11) and the Red Raiders. In their last two games, Texas stumbled against TCU losing at home 20-13 before losing the conference title game against Kansas State 42-24. While Texas hasn’t played up to their talent level this season, Mack Brown-led teams have historically fared well in bowl games. Since 2004, his Longhorn teams have lost just once (2010 NCG) when given time to prepare for their opponent.
The Beavers have already had one of their most successful seasons in recent memory. After winning just three games in 2011, the Beavers surprised most by finishing third in the Pac-12 North, and coming close to losing just one game (losing road games to Washington and Stanford by a combined 7 points). Behind sophomore quarterback Sean Mannion, the Beavers offense finished 37th in the NCAA in total yards. Their underrated defense allowed under 20 points a game this season, good enough for 22nd nationally. While Head Coach Mike Riley hasn’t led his program to a bowl since 2009, he does sport an impeccable career bowl record of 5-1.
While the Beavers have one of the nation’s best pass offenses, averaging 316.5 yards a game through the air, the strength of Texas’ team lies in their secondary. Safety Kenny Vaccaro should continue the recent run of players from the Longhorn secondary getting drafted in the 1st round, and junior cornerback Carrington Byndom could receive similar recognition if he makes himself available as well. When healthy, Mannion has looked like one of the best quarterbacks in his conference, and he’s been fortunate to have one of the best wide receiver tandems in the nation. While both Markus Wheaton and Brandin Cooks surpassed the 1,000 threshold in 2012, I expect the experienced Longhorn secondary to win this crucial battle.
However, I expect the Texas run defense to struggle against the meaty offensive line of Oregon State. Texas was expected to have one of the nation’s best defensive front-sevens, but injuries have forced a youth movement in Austin. The loss of defensive end Jackson Jeffcoat to injuryt has brought more attention to Alex Okafor, which allowed defenses to key in on Texas’ best pass rusher. Okafor went from being an all-conference selection in 2011, to finishing fourth on his team in tackles and eight sacks. Not a bad year for the senior, but his production left a lot to be desired for faithful fans of the Longhorn nation. Texas went from being the Big 12’s best defense to statistically being the worst, as they allowed almost 200 yards per game on the ground to opponents. If Riley is able to pound the ground early and often, expect a big game from running back Storm Woods. Woods averaged just 69 yards per simulation, but if he improves on those figures (which I expect) and adds a touchdown (33% chance), his efforts helped the Beavers prevail in 65% of simulated games.
Offensively, look for Texas to try to ignite their inconsistent offense by utilizing their speed on offense. While the Beaver defense has played cohesively and overachieved, Texas has some of the best athletes in the nation including wide receiver Marquise Goodwin, a 2012 Olympian in the long jump. Ash, Texas’ expected starter at quarterback, needs to perform like he played in the 2011 Holiday Bowl, where he led his team to a decisive 21-10 victory over the Cal Bears enroute to winning offensive MVP honors. Ash played inconsistently in 2012, even getting benched in favor of Case McCoy during their loss at TCU. While his numbers look solid (17 touchdowns to 7 interceptions), Ash needs to make plays and allow the game to come to him instead of forcing bad plays. The Oregon State secondary has been problems for opposing quarterbacks all season, as they have the sixth most interceptions at 19. The Longhorns have struggled in that department recently as they’ve thrown five picks over the last two games (both losses).
While Texas holds an advantage in both speed and overall athleticism, the Beavers hold advantages on both sides of the ball. I don’t see Texas winning a close game, but I would still watch out for an upset, Texas is talented. I see the Pac-12 improving their bowl record, Oregon St. takes it 30-21.
