Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Alabama vs Clemson: NCAA Title Game 2017
Who will win and by how much?
• Alabama by 1-6 points: 5/4
• Alabama by 7-12: 7/2
• Alabama by 13-18: 5/1
• Alabama by 19-24: 9/1
• Alabama by 25-30: 14/1
• Alabama by 31-36: 20/1
• Alabama by 37-42: 35/1
• Alabama by 43-plus: 40/1
Complete National Title Game Forecast: Click Here
• Clemson by 1-6: 17/4
• Clemson by 7-12: 17/2
• Clemson by 13-18: 16/1
• Clemson by 19-24: 33/1
• Clemson by 25-30: 55/1
• Clemson by 31-36: 80/1
• Clemson by 37-42: 100/1
• Clemson by 43-plus: 125/1
After 10,000-plus simulations, AccuScore data projects a final score of 28-20, in favor of Alabama.
Sim data would put its money on the Alabama by 7-12 point margin prop bet.
Deshaun Watson’s Production
• Passing yards: over/under 269.5
• Passing touchdowns: over/under 2.5
• Completions: over/under 42.5
• Rushing yards: over/under 45.5
Watson is projected to finish with 247 passing yards, 1 passing TD, 1 INT, 54 rushing yards on 15 carries.
Sim data would suggest the UNDER on the three passing prop bets connected to Watson, and the OVER on his rushing yards.
In last year's title game against 'Bama, Watson finished with 405 yards (30-of-47) and four TDs, along with 73 rushing yards.
Jalen Hurts’ Production
• Passing yards: over/under 189.5
• Completions: over/under 15.5
• Rushing yards: over/under 55.5
• Passing touchdowns Over 1.5: 5/8 (-160)
• Under 1.5: 6/5 (+120)
Hurts is projected to finish with 207 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, along with 72 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD.
Looking at the prop bet options and the sim data, the most appealing wager is either the OVER on passing yards, or the UNDER on passing TDs.
Hurts averages 1.2 passing TDs and 1.2 INTs per simulated matchup.
Clemson Players Prop Bets
• Rushing yards for Wayne Gallman: over/under 54.5 [Sim data projects 75 rushing yards on 20 carries]
• Receiving yards for Mike Williams: over/under 81.5 [Sim data projects 58 yards on 5 receptions.]
• Catches for Williams: over/under 5.5 [Sim data projects 58 yards on 5 receptions.]
• Receiving yards for Artavis Scott: over/under 39.5 [Sim data projects 45 yards on 4 receptions.]
• Catches for Artevis Scott: over/under 4 [Sim data projects 45 yards on 4 receptions.]
• Catches for Ray-Ray McCloud: over/under 3 [Sim data projects 29 yards on two-to-three receptions. He averages 2.5 catches per simulated matchup, suggesting the UNDER.]
Alabama Players Prop Bets
• Rushing yards for Bo Scarbrough: over/under 69.5 [Sim data projects 57 yards on 11 carries.]
• Rushing yards for Damien Harris: over/under 64.5 [Sim data projects 72 yards on 12 carries.]
• Receiving yards for ArDarius Stewart: over/under 67.5 [Sim data projects 55 yards on 4 receptions.]
• Catches for ArDarius Stewart: over/under 4 [Sim data projects 55 yards on 4 receptions. He averages 4.4 receptions per simulated matchup, to be specific.]
• Receiving yards for O.J. Howard: over/under 35.5 [Sim data projects 30 yards on two-to-three receptions.]
• Catches for O.J. Howard: over/under 3 [He averages 2.5 catches per simulated matchup, indicating a pick on the UNDER.]
• Receiving yards for Calvin Ridley: over/under 49.5 [Sim data projects 58 yards on five receptions.]
• Catches for Calvin Ridley: over/under 4.5 [Sim data projects 58 yards on five receptions.]
