• 2019 NBA Playoffs: Warriors Projected to Beat Bucks in NBA Finals

    Written by AccuScore Staff
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    2019 NBA Playoffs Preview: Warriors Over Buck in NBA Finals

    The NBA Playoffs tip-off Saturday, and AccuScore played out every series 10,000 times to simulate out the entire NBA postseason with a few surprises along the way, but the Golden State Warriors top the Milwaukee Buck in the NBA Finals for Kevin Durant's third straight title and the Warriors' fourth championship over a five-year span. Here's a look at the entire playoffs as AccuScore sees it.

    NBA Playoffs 2019 bracket and predictions

    Before we get to the NBA Finals, let's start with the opening round.

    AccuScore has expert picks against the spread and totals for every game of the 2019 NBA Playoffs. With trends, analysis and player projections, get the best winning analysis for the entire 2019 NBA Playoffs: NBA Expert Picks - Every Game

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    Western Conference

    The Warriors sweeping the Clippers is obviously on the table, since the Warriors beat the Clippers in 92% of AccuSore's simulations, the most lopsided of any series in the 2019 Western Conference playoffs. Golden State has an 18.5% chance of clean sweeping the Clippers, which may seem low until you consider that that's more than double the Clippers' chances of winning the series. The Warriors' highest probability for a closeout game, however, is Game 5 with 38.6% of simulations saying the Warriors pull off the gentleman's sweep.

    The Nuggets and Spurs series is an interesting one, since San Antonio is long on postseason experience, while Denver is here for the first time in forever. The Spurs may not pull off the upset, but they are projected to test Denver, with the Nuggets' most likely closeout game projected as Game 7 at with 21.7%. In all, the Nuggets hold a 61% to 39% edge on the Spurs, according to the computer.

    The Portland and Oklahoma City series is probably the closes matchup of the first round, with OKC possessing arguably the two best players in the series. Home court in the playoffs, though, is no joke, and these two teams especially understand the importance of playing at home. The Blazers are projected to win 57% of the time, with the most likely outcome a Game 7 win for Portland on the Blazers' home court.

    Utah, sadly, doesn't figure to have much of a chance against Houston. James Harden, Chris Paul and company are simply too strong for Utah. The Rockets won 74% of simulations, with the Rockets winning in 5 games 24.1% of the time.

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    Eastern Conference

    The only series more lopsided than the Warriors against the Clippers is the Bucks and the Pistons. The Buck won 93% of simulations. Pray for Detroit.

    Toronto torched Orlando at a 90% to 10% clip, so the top of the East is expected to cruise into the second round, where the playoffs really get going.

    Philly and Brooklyn, surprisingly, is a mismatch according to the computer. Brooklyn has a great story, but the computer gives the Nets only a 16% chance of pulling off the upset. As long as the Sixers are healthy, they're expected to cruise against the Nets. The Nets ended the series in 5 games in 29.5% of simulations, which is the most likely end to what has been a fantastic season for Brooklyn.

    Boston may not be where most people figured the Celtics would be at this stage, but the Indiana Pacers don't project to be the team to end the Celtic's season. Boston won 72% of the series in simulations, with the series ending in 5 games (24.3%) and 7 games (22.3%) the most likely conclusions.

    AccuScore will update projections and have more analysis as each round progresses

  • Daily Fantasy: NBA Schedule

    Taking Advantage Of Favorable NBA Schedules

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    Brandon Ingram - New Orleans Pelicans

    Opponents: UTA, LAC, MEM, SAC, WAS, SAS, SAC, ORL

    The 2019-2020 campaign has been a breakout for Brandon Ingram. In his first season with the New Orleans Pelicans, he’s posting career-highs in points (24.3), rebounds (6.3), and assists (4.3). He’s also shooting more threes than ever, upping his 1.8 attempts per game with the Los Angeles Lakers last season to 6.3 attempts per contest, nailing them at a healthy 38.7 percent.

    Ingram and the Pelicans draw a marginal schedule. It starts out tough with the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Clippers. Surprisingly, Ingram has done quite well against both clubs. In three games against Utah this season, Ingram averaged an incredible 39.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 5.3 assists.

    The final five contests are against some poor teams. The Sacramento Kings are average at defending the small forward position in general this season. The Washington Wizards allow the second-highest field goal percentage (48.1) against Ingram’s position, not to mention they’re devastated after Davis Bertans and Bradley Beal announced that they’re sitting out. The San Antonio Spurs allow small forwards to score the fourth-most points among teams entering the Orlando bubble. Overall, this schedule is set up for Ingram to succeed and remain a dominant DFS play. It doesn’t hurt that the Pelicans have a lot to play for, meaning minutes restrictions may not apply to Ingram.

     

    Ben Simmons - Philadelphia 76ers

    Opponents: IND, SAC, WAS, ORL, POR, PHX, TOR, HOU

    Ben Simmons has averaged at least a double-double against 6-of-8 opponents on the Philadelphia 76ers schedule. In fact, he has averaged a triple-double against the likes of the Toronto Raptors (over three contests) and Houston Rockets. Simmons has averaged a double-double against 13 teams this season, so the ratio is particularly high for their remaining schedule.

    Simmons is said to be completely healthy and ready to go inside the Orlando bubble. The Portland Trail Blazers, Phoenix Suns, and Wizards really struggle to defend the point guard position, combining to allow 24.7 points per 48 minutes against the position. Simmons should gobble up boards against foes such as the Toronto Raptors, Blazers, Indiana Pacers, and Houston Rockets. The four squads rank inside the bottom-six when it comes to rebounds allowed to point guards among teams entering the Orlando bubble. If Simmons is as healthy as we think, then he’s in for some nice season-ending performances.

     

    Jaylen Brown - Boston Celtics

    Opponents: MIL, POR, MIA, BKN, TOR, ORL, MEM, WAS 

    Jaylen Brown was in the midst of a breakout season, averaging 20.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, and a 38.1 percent mark from beyond the arc. The 23-year-old should have no problem with durability once the season resumes. They’re just 3.0 games behind the Raptors for the two-seed and 2.5 games ahead of the Miami Heat, so they’ll need to play their regulars to at least maintain their position.

    Brown and the Boston Celtics draw some favorable matchups for shooting guards. The Memphis Grizzlies, Wizards, Blazers, Magic, and Heat combine to allow shooting guards to score 24.1 points per 48 minutes. Memphis and Washington are two of the three-worst clubs in the NBA against the position when it comes to scoring, and the two are horrible at defending the three (allowing a combined 3.35 makes from deep per 48 minutes against shooting guards). 

    The Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors are two to avoid, but the rest of the schedule is looking juicy for Brown. Expect Brown to thrive against guys with poor defensive ratings like CJ McCollum (112.2), Evan Fournier (110.0), Dillon Brooks (108.9), and Troy Brown Jr. (113.7).

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