Kansas City Picked to Win the Super Bowl
After 17 weeks of regular season in NFL, there are 12 teams left standing and fighting for a chance to win Super Bowl in February. Accuscore has simulated every postseason game 10,000 times to calculate Super Bowl probabilities for every team still alive in the Vince Lombardi trophy.
While Vegas odds have the New Orleans Saints as the favorites to win it all, AccuScore's super computer says that the AFC's top seed Kansas City Chiefs should have the highest probability to stand victorious in Atlanta.
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On the whole, AccuScore's simulations don't show notable playoff upsets. Essentially, every favorite is projected to take care of business with home teams looking strong. The tightest match is a young Dallas Cowboys team hosting Russell Wilson and the experienced Seattle Seahawks. In the divisional round, bye-week teams have an obvious advantage over wild card winners. It is not very common that there is no lower seeded winners during playoffs, but right now, it's tough to find a clear Cinderella story. More likely, the 2019 NFL Playoffs will be similar to the 2018 NFL Playoffs, when top seeded teams faced each other in Super Bowl.
Both number one seeded teams have a very strong home field advantage, and Kansas City is definitely looking for improvement from last year’s loss to Tennessee in the playoffs. Their only home loss this season came against the Chargers, but Philip Rivers and company need to get past a red hot Baltimore on the road before even dreaming of walking into Arrowhead Stadium. Meanwhile, Kansas City performance was very strong in their 40-43 loss to the Patriots on the road, and a rematch would be held in Missouri. With revenge on their minds, a Patriots versus Chiefs AFC Championship game could turn into an unofficial passing of the torch from Tom Brady to Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City not at least making the AFC Championship game would be a huge disappointment.
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In the NFC, two high-flying offenses are projected to meet in the Championship game. The upstart LA Rams have only one playoff game worth of experience from last season, but they appear be more ready for the long playoff run this season. Still, the Super Bowl winning QB Drew Brees together with great running back tandem should be too much for the Rams, and with the Saints holding the home field advantage, the teams' regular season meeting is a good representation of how the Saints can beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game.
Before the season, it was very difficult to project out Kansas City because of a rookie starting at QB. As we all know now, Mahomes has surpassed all expectations with his record breaking season, essentially as a rookie. Mahomes has been tipped to win the NFL's MVP award, to underscore how incredible the second year QB out of Texas Tech has been.
When comparing Vegas odds to Accuscore Super Bowl probabilities, basically only Kansas City has value for betting. Long shots like Houston or Dallas have minor value as well, but as the probability is very low, it doesn’t make sense from a mathematical point of view to place those bets. Kansas City is good value to win the Super Bowl at this stage, but we will monitor playoffs as the picture develops on weekly basis and a couple upsets sure to change the probabilities.