Written by Rohit Ghosh
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AccuScore has updated odds and star-rated picks against the spread and on Over/Unders for this game and every other NBA game on the NBA Expert Picks Page
Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Game 3
After stealing home court advantage with a game 2 victory, the Grizzlies earned the right to take the series back to Memphis where they their final 14 home games to finish the regular season. Despite the Oklahoma City Thunder owning the league’s second-best road record, the Thunder have just one postseason win in Memphis against the Grizzlies in the previous five games dating back to 2011. The focus now shifts to the Grindhouse where the Thunder must play mistake-free basketball if they don’t want to go down 1-3.
AccuScore has the Memphis Grizzlies as slight 52.5 percent favorites to win game 3. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 94.8 – 94.7, with the Grizzlies having a 56 percent chance of covering the +2 spread.
Memphis vs Oklahoma City: Game 3 Betting Trends
• The favorite (in game 3, OKC -2) is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
• Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
• OKC is 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
• OKC is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.
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Projected Leaders
Kevin Durant: 27 points (47% FG), 7 rebounds, 5 assists
Russell Westbrook: 20 points (43% FG), 7 assists, 4 rebounds, 4 TOs
Zach Randolph: 20 points (43% FG), 11 rebounds, 2 assists
Mike Conley: 16 points (43% FG), 7 assists, 3 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 TOs
What to Watch For
The Grizzlies’ ball movement saw a drastic improvement from game one to game two as they had 30 assists in the latter compared to 20 in the former. While game one saw lots of iso-heavy sets, the increase in game 2 shows that Memphis was more patient on offense. Given the team has very little individual offensive firepower, the “get it done by committee” style requires ball movement to get the entire team involved. AccuScore projects 23 assists for Memphis in game 3.
Fun Fact: The Memphis Grizzlies are now 64-8 over the last two seasons in games when scoring 100 points or more.
Memphis is in the bottom third of the league in limiting opponents fastbreak production while Oklahoma City is in the top third in fastbreak points per game. The Thunder finished with 16 fastbreak points in game 2 – most of it coming in the second half. Memphis was able to slow down the Thunder attack in the first quarter, helping to dictate the pace for the whole game. Keep an eye on OKC’s early transition game – easy buckets just gets Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook rolling.
The Grizzlies are dead last in the league at three pointers made per game. The Thunder are No. 15 in the league in the same category. Despite having the quantity and quality of better shooters, the Thunder are projected to make just 2 more three-pointers than the Grizzlies despite attempting 6 more than their opponent. In a game projected to be this close, how many three-pointers the Thunder can make will have a big impact on the outcome. With Memphis purposely slowing the pace down, three-pointers for OKC become even more valuable as the number of possessions become a premium.
