Written by Rohit Ghosh
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AccuScore has updated odds and star-rated picks against the spread and on Over/Unders for this game and every other NBA game on the NBA Expert Picks Page

Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Game 3

After stealing home court advantage with a game 2 victory, the Grizzlies earned the right to take the series back to Memphis where they their final 14 home games to finish the regular season. Despite the Oklahoma City Thunder owning the league’s second-best road record, the Thunder have just one postseason win in Memphis against the Grizzlies in the previous five games dating back to 2011. The focus now shifts to the Grindhouse where the Thunder must play mistake-free basketball if they don’t want to go down 1-3.

AccuScore has the Memphis Grizzlies as slight 52.5 percent favorites to win game 3. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 94.8 – 94.7, with the Grizzlies having a 56 percent chance of covering the +2 spread.

Memphis vs Oklahoma City: Game 3 Betting Trends

• The favorite (in game 3, OKC -2) is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
• Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
• OKC is 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
• OKC is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.

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Projected Leaders

Kevin Durant: 27 points (47% FG), 7 rebounds, 5 assists
Russell Westbrook: 20 points (43% FG), 7 assists, 4 rebounds, 4 TOs
Zach Randolph: 20 points (43% FG), 11 rebounds, 2 assists
Mike Conley: 16 points (43% FG), 7 assists, 3 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 TOs

What to Watch For

The Grizzlies’ ball movement saw a drastic improvement from game one to game two as they had 30 assists in the latter compared to 20 in the former. While game one saw lots of iso-heavy sets, the increase in game 2 shows that Memphis was more patient on offense. Given the team has very little individual offensive firepower, the “get it done by committee” style requires ball movement to get the entire team involved. AccuScore projects 23 assists for Memphis in game 3.

Fun Fact: The Memphis Grizzlies are now 64-8 over the last two seasons in games when scoring 100 points or more.

Memphis is in the bottom third of the league in limiting opponents fastbreak production while Oklahoma City is in the top third in fastbreak points per game. The Thunder finished with 16 fastbreak points in game 2 – most of it coming in the second half. Memphis was able to slow down the Thunder attack in the first quarter, helping to dictate the pace for the whole game. Keep an eye on OKC’s early transition game – easy buckets just gets Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook rolling.

The Grizzlies are dead last in the league at three pointers made per game. The Thunder are No. 15 in the league in the same category. Despite having the quantity and quality of better shooters, the Thunder are projected to make just 2 more three-pointers than the Grizzlies despite attempting 6 more than their opponent. In a game projected to be this close, how many three-pointers the Thunder can make will have a big impact on the outcome. With Memphis purposely slowing the pace down, three-pointers for OKC become even more valuable as the number of possessions become a premium.

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NBA

NBA2 Season Futures

Eastern SEASON-TO-DATE FORECAST POSTSEASON
WIN LOSS WIN LOSS WIN DIV PLAYOFF
ATL
Boston Celtics 61 21 61.0 21.0 100% 100%
New York Knicks 51 31 51.0 31.0 0% 100%
Toronto Raptors 30 52 30.0 52.0 0% 0%
Brooklyn Nets 26 56 26.0 56.0 0% 0%
Philadelphia 76ers 24 58 24.0 58.0 0% 0%
CEN
Cleveland Cavaliers 64 18 64.0 18.0 100% 100%
Indiana Pacers 50 32 50.2 32.8 0% 100%
Milwaukee Bucks 48 34 48.0 34.0 0% 100%
Detroit Pistons 44 38 44.0 38.0 0% 100%
Chicago Bulls 39 43 39.0 43.0 0% 100%
SE
Orlando Magic 41 41 41.0 41.0 100% 100%
Atlanta Hawks 40 42 40.0 42.0 0% 100%
Miami Heat 37 45 37.0 45.0 0% 100%
Charlotte Hornets 19 63 19.0 63.0 0% 0%
Washington Wizards 18 64 18.0 64.0 0% 0%

Western SEASON-TO-DATE FORECAST POSTSEASON
WIN LOSS WIN LOSS WIN DIV PLAYOFF
NW
Oklahoma City Thunder 68 14 68.8 14.2 100% 100%
Denver Nuggets 50 32 50.0 32.0 0% 100%
Minnesota Timberwolves 49 33 49.0 33.0 0% 100%
Portland Trail Blazers 36 46 36.0 46.0 0% 0%
Utah Jazz 17 65 17.0 65.0 0% 0%
PAC
Los Angeles Clippers 50 32 50.0 32.0 67.2% 100%
Los Angeles Lakers 50 32 50.0 32.0 0% 100%
Golden State Warriors 48 34 48.0 34.0 32.8% 100%
Sacramento Kings 40 42 40.0 42.0 0% 100%
Phoenix Suns 36 46 36.0 46.0 0% 0%
SW
Houston Rockets 52 30 52.0 30.0 100% 100%
Memphis Grizzlies 48 34 48.0 34.0 0% 100%
Dallas Mavericks 39 43 39.0 43.0 0% 100%
San Antonio Spurs 34 48 34.0 48.0 0% 0%
New Orleans Pelicans 21 61 21.0 61.0 0% 0%

Eastern, ATL

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

Eastern, ATL

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

Eastern, CEN

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

Eastern, CEN

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

Eastern, SE

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

Eastern, SE

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

Western, NW

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

Western, NW

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

Western, PAC

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

Western, PAC

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

Western, SW

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

Western, SW

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF