A common belief (fact) is that there are ballparks that suit hitters better than pitchers and vice versa. The O.co Coliseum, home of the Oakland A’s, is known for its spacious foul territory which converts many foul balls into fly outs, and can be therefore thought to be a pitcher friendly ballpark.


The O.Co Coliseum

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The Coors Field in Denver (Colorado Rockies) is a nightmare for most pitchers mostly because of dry and thin mountain air, which gives the ball better flight features and also makes the curveball brake less, and hence in most cases makes it a more hittable pitch. The climate in Denver was of course no surprise when the ballpark was constructed and therefore the fences were moved back in an effort to make it harder to hit home runs, but at the same time creating an outfield with huge dimensions (big gaps). This is why the probability of a fly ball falling in for a double or triple instead of getting caught by an outfielder is slightly higher at Coors Field than at many other MLB-ballparks.

Understanding the differences in ballpark dimensions, weather and other non-player related factors that affect the probability of runs scored and allowed is of high importance when forecasting and predicting the outcome of baseball games. To be able to do this we can to use historical data and create a run environment for every ballpark. The run environment can be thought as the probable number of runs scored in a game with two average teams facing each other. With accurate run environments for every ballpark we are much better equipped when projecting outcomes for an individual game.

This season there have been quite a few ballparks, where the projected runs scored have not been close to actual runs scored. At Busch Stadium in St. Louis and PNC Park in Pittsburgh we have witnessed more runs than expected and at Camden Yards in Baltimore and Miller Park in Milwaukee the number of runs scored has been surprisingly low. There are, of course, other factors, including randomness, involved. However, we are confident that mean reversion will take care of business, and we will witness fewer runs scored in St. Louis and Pittsburgh and a lot more in Baltimore and Milwaukee during the remainder of the 2014 MLB baseball season.