By Tomi Rantanen

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Mets back on track with convincing home win

The home advantage has been the key in the World Series so far, with the home team winning each of the three so far. Kansas City gave the Mets only five runs in two games at Kauffman Stadium and yesterday the Mets held the Royals to three runs at Citi Field. At this rate, the All-Star game win by the AL might prove crucial.

The series continues today with the 2nd game of a three game home stand for the Mets, after the Mets won the 1st 9-3 on the shoulders of David Wright, who blasted four runs. On the mound the home team will start with Steven Matz, a leftie who started last time in game four at Chicago and ended the Cubs season with a win. The visitors respond with 36-year-old veteran Chris Young, who started last time 11 days ago in a 14-2 win over Toronto.

AccuScore simulation engine does not seem to give a hoot about the above mentioned home advantage, but give the Royals a 54% probability to steal the win today and take 3-1 series lead. Both of the pitchers are predicted to somewhat struggle, with less than 40% chance of quality starts. However, the score remains close with Kansas City scoring 4.3 runs on average while Mets are held to 3.7.

AccuScore has picks for every game of the fall classic: World Series Picks

If indeed the Royals snatch a win today, the series is likely to finish in six games. According to the simulations the Mets will bounce back in game 5 with 59% probability to win, but returning to Kansas City proves too much of an obstacle: Kansas City Royals take game 6 with a narrow but decisive 51.8%.

Here are the AccuScore predictions for the rest of the series*:
Game 4: Kansas City 54%
Game 5: New York Mets 59.1%
Game 6: Kansas City 51.8%

*The simulations are run with an assumption the pitching rotations remains untouched, with pairings of Harvey vs Volquez and deGrom vs Cueto

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