AccuScore has expert picks that identify side value on the moneyline, run line and on the over/under for every game - World Series 2014 Picks: Click Here

Like predicted after game 3, the game 7 will decide the winner of World Series. Even though the results have not indicated very tight games, the overall series have been neck to neck since Kansas City won game 3 in San Francisco.

These shutout wins haven’t changed the overall powers too much and based on 10000 simulations Accuscore predicts Giants to win game 7. It would be another close game, but Giants have 51.5% probability of winning.

There have been discussions that potential World Series MVP Madison Bumgarner will make a comeback to this final game as a reliever. What would be his impact to the outcome? We simulated game 7 also without Bumgarner’s one pitched inning as a reliever and Giants’ win probability dropped 0.5%. It sounds like a small number, but in tight series like this it could be a difference maker.

For tonight’s starters both pitchers have a 61% chance of a Quality Start (QS). If Jeremy Guthrie has a quality start the Royals has a 62% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.2 and he has a 27% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Royals win 58%. If Tim Hudson has a quality start the Giants has a 66% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.4 and he has a 23% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Giants win 64%.

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On the offensive side the most productive batter for the Kansas City Royals is Lorenzo Cain who based on our simulations averages 1.65 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 24% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Royals have a 65% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the San Francisco Giants is Buster Posey who will average 1.81 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 26% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Giants have a 75% chance of winning.

Accuscore has predicted game winner correctly so far in 5 games out of 6 games in World Series. Let’s see if Giants, that was our prediction to win whole series as well, will push our accuracy to over 85% with 6 correct predictions out of 7.