AccuScore has expert picks that identify side value on the moneyline, run line and on the over/under for every game - World Series 2014 Picks: Click Here
Streaking Kansas City lost game 1 of World Series last night. Madison Baumgartner was as effective as predicted and Giants showed needed power to put run on the board. Royals starting pitcher James Shields lasted only a bit more than 3 innings and was the main reason why there were more runs than our predicted totals.
Game 2 takes place tonight. Based on our simulations this is the best chance for Kansas City to win in this World Series. The game is very close (Kansas 50.7% - San Francisco 49.3%), but if they cannot equalize the series tonight, it would be too much to overcome during next games in San Francisco.
Both starters have a good chance of having a quality start. Yordano Ventura has a 65% chance of a QS and Jake Peavy a 63% chance. If Yordano Ventura has a quality start the Royals has a 63% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.8 and he has a 25% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Royals win 55%. This is the most crucial part of the Kansas success, without quality start, their winning probability drops quite a bit.
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On the offensive side, the most productive batter for the Kansas City Royals is Eric Hosmer who averaged 1.66 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 24% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Royals have a 67% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the San Francisco Giants is Buster Posey who averaged 1.77 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 26% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Giants have a 67% chance of winning.
We are still sticking with the prediction we made before the start of the World Series, Giants will win 4-1. Tonight we will see if Royals live up our expectations.