AMERICAN LEAGUE
Cleveland resurrected its playoff hopes by going 4-1 this week including a series win against Central-leading Detroit. The Indians have been fueled by the offense of Jason Kipnis, and recently got outfielder Shin-Soo Choo back from the disabled list. They nearly doubled their chances of winning the division this week gaining 12.2 percentage points in playoff probability. The Tigers consequently fell 16.5 percentage points. The two teams still have nine head-to-head match-ups remaining including another set of three in Detroit. The White Sox are still lurking behind in third, but have finally reached .500 and remain just four games off the lead.
The other move this week was Texas which went 5-1 against Western division foes. The Rangers are now 96.8 percent likely to make the postseason up 8.8 percentage points from last week. The Angels lost four of six games on a road trip through the East, and fell 8.9 percentage points. They have just a 3.3 percent of winning the West. New York and Boston remain firmly in control of the other two playoff spots, one as the AL East winner and the other as the Wild Card. The Red Sox are still the favorite to win the division.
American League |
Weekly Review |
Playoff |
% Chance |
| Team |
8-Aug |
14-Aug |
% Diff |
Win Div |
| Cleveland Indians |
12.1% |
24.3% |
12.2% |
24.3% |
| Texas Rangers |
88.0% |
96.8% |
8.8% |
96.7% |
| Chicago White Sox |
2.3% |
6.5% |
4.2% |
6.5% |
| Tampa Bay Rays |
1.1% |
1.6% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
| Kansas City Royals |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Toronto Blue Jays |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Baltimore Orioles |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Seattle Mariners |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Oakland Athletics |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Minnesota Twins |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| New York Yankees |
98.8% |
98.7% |
-0.1% |
35.5% |
| Boston Red Sox |
99.6% |
99.3% |
-0.3% |
64.4% |
| Los Angeles Angels |
12.5% |
3.6% |
-8.9% |
3.3% |
| Detroit Tigers |
85.7% |
69.2% |
-16.5% |
69.2% |
NATIONAL LEAGUE
One of the biggest surprises in baseball has to be the rise of the Diamondbacks. For the first time all season Arizona is now the favorite to win the NL West at 60.2 percent compared to 39.8 percent for San Francisco. The D-Backs gained 23.2 percentage points dominating the bottom dwellers in the league (HOU, NYM) for a 6-1 week. The Giants have continued to struggle offensively, and played most of the past week without Carlos Beltran. San Francisco trails Arizona by two games in the real standings, but still has the far superior pitching staff. Those pitchers will need to carry the team if it is to make the postseason to defend the World Series title.
Milwaukee gained 12.8 percentage points to become the runaway favorite to win the NL Central. The Brewers win the division in 94.6 percent of simulations. They took two of three games in their recent series with the Cardinals. St. Louis trails Milwaukee by five games in the real standings, and is down to just a 5.3 percent chance of a division title. The Reds have underachieved thus far accruing a +43 run differential, but a record 3 games under .500. By comparison, Cincinnati’s run differential is 16 better than the West leading Diamondbacks.
Philadelphia continues to be the only team in baseball to make the playoffs in every simulation. Atlanta continues to have a stranglehold on the Wild Card at 89.5 percent despite just a 1 percent chance at catching the Phillies.
| National League |
Weekly Review |
Playoff |
% Chance |
| Team |
8-Aug |
14-Aug |
% Diff |
Win Div |
| Arizona Diamondbacks |
38.8% |
62.0% |
23.2% |
60.2% |
| Milwaukee Brewers |
82.5% |
95.3% |
12.8% |
94.6% |
| Atlanta Braves |
80.4% |
89.5% |
9.1% |
1.0% |
| Washington Nationals |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Houston Astros |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Florida Marlins |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Colorado Rockies |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| San Diego Padres |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Chicago Cubs |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Philadelphia Phillies |
100.0% |
100.0% |
0.0% |
99.0% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| New York Mets |
0.1% |
0.0% |
-0.1% |
0.0% |
| Cincinnati Reds |
0.4% |
0.1% |
-0.3% |
0.1% |
| St. Louis Cardinals |
31.3% |
11.4% |
-19.9% |
5.3% |
| San Francisco Giants |
66.4% |
41.7% |
-24.7% |
39.8% |
