MLB Analysis: Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles

Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles

Friday 4 August, 7:05 PM (EDT)

Two desperate teams take on each other in the second game of their four game series at Camden Yards. The American League rivals are hanging in the race for post-season berth, but time is running out – Baltimore is four wins behind the wild card spot with a record of 53-55 and Detroit needs to catch up six wins in order for their season to continue past 4th of October. Their record is 50-57.

The Tigers won the first outing after a terrible performance by Orioles’ starter Chris Tillman. Detroit took an early 7-0 lead in the third inning, from which Orioles never recovered despite excellent effort by the bullpen. They held Tiger in seven runs, but offense only managed to support for five runs.

Both teams have been in great form as of late. Detroit has won five out of six, including double wins over AL top teams Houston Astros and New York Yankees. They have been in excellent form on the road, going 6-4 in past 10 games. Baltimore has impressed especially at home by sweeping both Kansas City and Texas Rangers. Orioles are 6-4 in past ten and 7-3 in past ten at home. Overall Baltimore is one of the best home teams in the league with a record of 33-22 (3rd in AL), while Detroit’s road record is less than impressive 23-32 (12th in AL).

The home team sends out Kevin Gausman, who struggled early on the season but has now won three of his last starts allowing only one run in 20 innings. He is 8-7 with an ERA of 5.37 over the season. With the encouraging performance by the bullpen last night, this time Orioles are likely to be able to hold Detroit at bay. Tigers start with 13-year veteran Justin Verlander, who is 6-7 with an ERA of 4.29. He has improved come July and has an ERA of 3.82 in six starts.

Orioles’ offense has been on fire at Camden Yards, scoring on average 7.1 runs in their past 10 home games. Detroit, on the other hand, have had some problems defensively on the road, allowing on average 5.33 runs (25th in all MLB, 14th in AL).

Vegas Odds

Current market favors the home team Baltimore Orioles, with odds of 1.78. According to Accuscore’s simulations, the correct odds for Orioles win are 1.66, 60.4%.

Accuscore Analysis

In Accuscore simulations, Baltimore Orioles are the likely winners with 60.4% probability.

Value bets should be placed for Orioles when the odds reach 1.67 and for Detroit Tigers with odds of 2.53 or better.

Orioles are efficient at bat, scoring on average 5.0 runs with 9.7 hits. Their capability of hitting a home run is remarkably higher than that of Tigers: on average Orioles hit 1.53 homers in simulations, while Tigers only manage 0.85.

The biggest impact offensively comes from Baltimore’s most likely first four at bats: Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop and Chris Davis. All four have a 60% or more probability to score a run, with Schoop hitting a homer with a 25% likelihood. For Tigers, the scoring is in the hands of Ian Kinsler and Justin Upton, who both have 60% chance of scoring a run. Homeruns for the visitors are less likely, with only Miguel Cabrera with a 15% homer probability.

Orioles’ starter Kevin Gausman is likely to win the pitching battle against Tigers’ Justin Verlander. Gausman allows < 2.9 runs on average in 5 2/3 innings, while Verlander’s numbers show > 3.5 runs allowed in 5 2/3. The bullpen performance appears similar in Accuscore’s simulations, with neither allowing more than 1.5 runs in remaining 3 1/3 innings.

The simulations show definite edge for Baltimore Orioles, who are slightly ahead all around the field. Their home performance has been excellent and they are definitely playing with a chip on their shoulder after the narrow and somewhat undeserved loss last night. Take the home win tonight!

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