AccuScore has expert picks that identify side value on the moneyline, run line and on the over/under for every game - World Series 2014 Picks: Click Here
Kansas City Royals took a surprising victory in Game 3 last night in AT&T Park. They build the momentum after Game 2 win and pushed Tim Hudson out of the game after 3 runs. These runs secured win with excellent bullpen of Kansas City.
This result changed the balance of whole World Series. As games 4 and potentially 6 are very tight and can turn to any direction, there is a high chance that we will see a deciding game 7. However, with this win Kansas City is on the driver’s seat and has slight chances to claim World Series already in game 6.
But first we will take a look to the game 4. The game is basically a coin flip with both teams having 50% chances of winning. As Kansas City current line is +115, there is good value in this moneyline bet. Many betting trends from last 30 days and whole season are supporting this pick.
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Both starters have a good chance of having a quality start. Ryan Vogelsong has a 60% chance of a QS and Jason Vargas a 56% chance. If Ryan Vogelsong has a quality start the Giants has a 63% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.4 and he has a 28% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Giants win 57%. If Jason Vargas has a quality start the Royals has a 58% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.2 and he has a 28% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Royals win 54%.
With these starting pitchers and strong presence in Kansas City bullpen, we also predict game totals to be under 7.
In simulations we also tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the San Francisco Giants is Buster Posey who averaged 1.85 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 27% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Giants have a 64% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Kansas City Royals is Lorenzo Cain who averaged 1.68 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 25% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Royals have a 69% chance of winning.
Tonight’s game will decide the direction of World Series. If Kansas City wins, they have 3 chances to claim title. With good chances in games 6 and 7 on their home field, that might be too much for Giants to overcome.
