AccuScore has expert picks that identify side value on the moneyline, run line and on the over/under for every game - World Series 2014 Picks: Click Here
After two correct predictions in games 1 and 2, Accuscore dives deep in game 3 analysis. Kansas City Royals makes only a second trip to AT&T Park during stadium’s 14 years of existence; the earlier series were 2005, when Kansas won 2 games out of 3. While we think that game 4 would be tight 50-50 game between these teams, tonight’s game has a clear favorite.
Giants have more than 55% probability of winning with help of their starting pitcher Tim Hudson. As this is the first start in World Series in his 16 year career, we think he has done his preparations very well. He is forecasted to have a better game than Royals' starter Jeremy Guthrie. Hudson has a 62% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Jeremy Guthrie has a 54% chance for a QS. If Tim Hudson has a quality start the Giants has a 64% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 4.3 and he has a 29% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Giants win 61%. In Jeremy Guthrie quality starts the Royals win 57%. He has a 23% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 57% of simulations.
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In game 2 Billy Butler was one of the key drivers for Royals win as a designated hitter. As there are no designated hitters in next 3 games, he will most probably just squeeze his bat on a bench while watching others to play. For the San Francisco Giants the most productive batter is Buster Posey who averaged 1.81 hits+walks+RBI in our simulations. He has a 26% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Giants have a 70% chance of winning. We predict that the most productive batter for the Kansas City Royals is Lorenzo Cain who averaged 1.65 hits+walks+RBI in our simulations. He has a 24% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Royals have a 63% chance of winning.
Kansas win tonight would be the biggest upset in the World Series so far.